有志者事成抑或有力者事成——省级数字政府专项政策采纳的影响因素和路径

Motivation-determined or Ability-determined--The Determinants and Configurations of the Provincial Digital Government Policy Adoption

数字政府专项政策旨在为数字政府发展把舵定向,厘清其扩散动因有利于协调政府数字化转型全局。既有研究疏于考察政策出台环节,多采用线性统计分析方法,在解释因果关系复杂的政策扩散时不无局限性。基于“动机—能力”视角,采用模糊集定性比较分析法探究省级数字政府专项政策采纳的影响因素及机制,可知,中央信号感知是数字政府专项政策较早采纳的必要条件,而公众需求、同侪竞争、社会舆论、数字治理能力、政策积累和财政资源则是边缘条件。根据条件配置差异,数字政府专项政策扩散的组态路径可进一步概括为“造势赶超”“更上层楼”“水到渠成”三种类型。相较“有力者事成”,“有志者事成”逻辑体现得更为突出。动机和能力条件的差序配置格局及政策积累的双向影响,丰富了中国政策扩散研究的场景与视角。

The digital government policy aims to steer the direction of digital government development,and clarifying its influencing factors is conducive to coordinating the holistic arrangement of government digital transformation.Existing research often uses linear statistical analysis methods but rarely investigates the policy adoption,which has limitations in explaining policy diffusion with complex causalities.This paper develops an analysis framework integrating new institutionalism and resource-based theory from the perspective of"motivation-ability",employing fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to explore the determinants and configurations of earlier provincial digital government policy adoption.This research suggests that the perception of central government's signal is the core condition for earlier adoption of provincial digital government policy,while public demand,peer competition pressure,pressure from social media,digital governance capability,policy accumulation,and financial resources are marginal conditions.According to the dfference in components,the configurations can be refined as three sub-categories including"Zao Shi Gan Chao"(creating momentum to catch up and surpass),"Geng Shang Ceng Lou"(climbing up one more stair)and"Shui Dao Qu Cheng"(a formed channel following with the water flows).Compared to the"ability-determined"logic,the"motivation-determined"logic is more prominent.The study reveals the differential configuration pattern of motivation and ability conditions,as well as the bidirectional impact of policy accumulation toward policy innovation adoption,which helps to enrich the scene of China's policy diffusion research.