一种基于回归方程的峰谷分时电价模型

A Peak-valley TOU Electricity Price Model Based on Regression Equation

峰谷分时电价是在不同时间段实施不同价格,由此达到削峰填谷、平衡负荷的目的。鉴于表示用户对电价响应的方法较少,而传统负荷电价弹性矩阵存在获取困难的问题以及缺少指标验证其精确性,创新性地提出建立含高次项与交互项的多元回归模型来反映用户对电价的响应,并分别从供给侧和需求侧考虑,建立了基于回归方程的峰谷分时电价优化模型。根据新加坡能源市场公司提供的负荷与电价数据,分别对基于负荷电价弹性矩阵和基于回归方程的多目标优化问题进行算例分析,对比两种模型并验证了基于回归方程模型的可行性和有效性。

Peak-valley TOU electricity price means to carry out different prices in different time periods to achieve the purpose of peak cutting and valley filling and load balance.Given that there are few ways to represent a user’s response to electricity prices,it is difficult to obtain the elastic matrix of the traditional load price and there are few indicators to verify its accuracy.In this paper,a multiple regression model containing higher order terms and interaction terms is proposed innovatively to reflect the user’s response to electricity price.And a peak-valley TOU electricity price optimized model based on regression equation is established from the supply side and the demand side respectively,the regression method based on peak and valley TOU electricity price optimization model is established.Finally,according to the load and electricity price data provided by Singapore Energy Market Company,the multi-objective optimization problem based on the load electricity price elasticity matrix and the regression equation is analyzed with examples respectively.The feasibility and effectiveness of the model based on regression equation are verified based on a comparison of the two models.