山东省生猪价格波动特征研究

Study on hog price fluctuation characteristics in Shandong Province

为了解山东省生猪价格波动特征,试验采用描述性统计法、X12季节调整法和H-P滤波(Hodrick Prescott filter)法,从时间、产业链和地区维度,对山东省2003年1月份—2022年12月份生猪价格波动特征进行了研究。结果表明:2003年1月份—2022年12月份,山东省生猪价格共发生了5次较完整的价格波动,平均周期约为45.4个月,前4次显示出“梯次上涨、梯次下跌”的特征,第5次则表现为明显的“暴涨暴跌”,但整体仍呈现上涨趋势;价格波动的年内特征明显,年初、年末和7,8月份价格高,4,5月份和10月份价格低,呈左重右轻的不对称“W”形走势;季节因素作用呈现出“三峰两谷”的特征,时间上与年内价格走势吻合;山东省内生猪价格西南部高、东北部低,价格波动频率和市场整合程度东南部高、西北部低,存在地区差异,各地区市场间的联系较弱,增加了政策调控失灵的可能。因此,建议适度发展规模化养殖,改进猪肉收储政策,优化价格预警机制,加强生猪疫病防控,最终实现市场稳定和产业可持续发展。

In order to understand the fluctuating characteristics of hog price in Shandong Province,descriptive statistical method,X12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method were used to study the fluctuation characteristics of hog prices in Shandong Province from January 2003 to December 2022 from the perspectives of time,industry chain and region.The results showed that from January 2003 to December 2022,there had been 5 relatively complete price fluctuations in Shandong Province.The average cycle was about 45.4 months.The first 4 times showed the characteristics of“echelon rise,echelon fall”.The fifth time showed obvious“surge and plunge”,but the overall trend was still rising.The price fluctuations within the year were significant,showing an asymmetric“W”trend of heavy left and light right,with high prices at the beginning,end of year,July,and August,with low prices in April,May,and October.The effects of seasonal factors presented the characteristics of‘three peaks and two valleys’,and the time was consistent with the price trend within the year.The price level of hog price was high in the southwest and low in the northeast,the price fluctuation frequency and market integration degree of hog price was high in the southeast and low in the northwest in Shandong Province,and the market connection between different regions was weak,which increased the possibility of policy control failure.Therefore,it was recommended to appropriately develop large-scale breeding,improve the policy of pork collection and storage,optimize the price early warning mechanism,strengthen the prevention and control of pig diseases,and ultimately achieve market stability and sustainable development of the industry.