基于电动汽车保有量的电网发展规模预测分析方法研究

Research on the prediction and analysis method of power grid development scale based on electric vehicle ownership

随着国家“双碳”目标和相关政策的推进,电动汽车保有量持续增加,电动汽车充电设施大量接入将给区域电网安全稳定运行带来新的挑战。文章基于电动汽车保有量及发展趋势,预测地区未来电动汽车充电桩接入规模,测算电网承载能力,计算相应电网投资规模以及充电桩运营商收益,从成本收益角度分析未来地区充电设施的发展前景。文章以北京、上海两地为例,验证本方法的合理性和有效性。

With the promotion of the national“dual-carbon”target and relevant policies,the number of electric vehicles continues to increase.The large number of access to electric vehicle charging facilities will bring new challenges to the safe and stable operation of the regional power grid.Based on the ownership and development trend of electric vehicles,this paper predicts the future access scale of ev charging piles in the region,calculates the carrying capacity of the power grid,calculates the investment scale of the power grid and the income of charging pile operators,then analyzes the development prospect of charging facilities in the future region from the perspective of cost and benefit.This paper takes Beijing and Shanghai as examples to verify the rationality and effectiveness of this method.