基于复杂网络分析的广东省城镇居民碳足迹研究

Study on Carbon Footprint of Urban Residents in Guangdong Province Based on Complex Network Analysis

应用投入产出模型和复杂网络分析方法,计算了广东省城镇居民直接碳足迹、间接碳足迹,构建了城镇居民间接碳足迹复杂网络,并对碳足迹重点产业部门进行了结构分解分析。研究结果表明:(1)广东省城镇居民直接碳足迹的主要来源是汽油和液化石油气,间接碳足迹网络的核心产业部门是电力、热力的生产和供应业。(2)广东省城镇居民碳足迹的主要来源为间接碳足迹,对所构建的碳足迹网络进行整体结构和个体特征两方面的分析发现,城镇居民间接碳足迹网络的通达性逐年向好,但各产业部门之间的协同碳关联关系的发挥尚有提升空间。(3)根据产业部门在碳足迹网络中的地位和作用,运用相关指标将其划分为碳核心社区、碳中介社区、碳边缘社区,在对碳核心社区的结构分解分析中发现,碳排放强度效应均为减碳因素,消费水平效应、城镇化水平效应、人口效应为增碳因素,且消费水平效应的增碳贡献率最大。

This paper applies the input-output model and complex network analysis method to calculate the direct carbon footprint and indirect carbon footprint of urban residents in Guangdong Province,constructs a complex network of indirect carbon footprint of urban residents,and analyzes the structural decomposition of the key industrial sectors of carbon footprint.The findings suggest that:(1)The main sources of the direct carbon footprint of urban residents in Guangdong province are gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas,and the core industrial sector of the indirect carbon footprint network is the production and supply of electricity and heat.(2)The main source of the carbon footprint of urban residents in Guangdong Province is indirect carbon footprint.The analysis of the overall structure and individual characteristics of the constructed carbon footprint network shows that the accessibility of the indirect carbon footprint network of urban residents is improving year by year,but there is still room for improvement in the synergistic carbon correlation between various industrial departments.(3)Based on the industry sectors in the carbon footprint network,relevant indicators classify them into carbon core,intermediary,and edge communities.The analysis reveals that within the carbon core community,carbon intensity,consumption level,urbanization,and population are key factors affecting carbon emissions,with consumption level having the highest contribution rate.