数字经济如何影响农业发展韧性——基于异质性与非线性的考量

How Digital Economy Affects the Resilience of Agricultural Development Based on Consideration of Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity

数字经济作为技术变革与经济发展的动力源泉,借助数字技术推动生产率提升及经济结构优化,有效赋能农业发展韧性提升。基于2010—2020年中国13个粮食主产区省级面板数据,实证研究了数字经济与农业发展韧性之间的内在影响。研究发现:数字经济对农业发展韧性具有显著正向促进作用,即粮食主产区数字经济发展水平每提升1%,农业发展韧性提升0.231%;数字经济对农业发展韧性的影响存在区域异质性,东部地区农业发展韧性在数字经济发展中的获益能力强于中部和北部;数字经济对粮食主产区农业发展韧性存在“边际效应”递增的非线性影响,当数字经济水平高于门槛值0.540时,其对农业发展韧性的作用得到显著提升。对此,需加大数字基础设施和数字平台建设投资力度,推动数字经济与农业系统深度融合;提升农户数字技能与文化素养,加强“数字+农业”人才队伍建设;各主产区应结合自身资源禀赋,因地制宜发展数字经济。

As the driving force of technological change and economic development,the digital economy uses digital technology to promote productivity improvement and economic structure optimization,effectively empowering agricultural development resilience.Based on the provincial panel data of 13 major grain-producing areas in China from 2010 to 2020,this paper empirically studies the intrinsic impact between the digital economy and the resilience of agricultural development.The results show that the digital economy has a significant positive effect on the resilience of agricultural development,that is,for every 1%increase in the development level of digital economy in major grain-producing areas,the resilience of agricultural development increases by 0.231%.There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of digital economy on agricultural development resilience,and the ability of agricultural development resilience in the eastern region to benefit from the development of digital economy is stronger than that in the central and northern regions.The digital economy has an increasing nonlinear impact on the resilience of agricultural development in major grain-producing areas,and when the level of digital economy is higher than the threshold value of 0.540,its effect on the resilience of agricultural development is significantly improved.In this regard,it is necessary to strengthen investment in digital infrastructure and digital platform construction,and promote the deep integration of digital economy and agricultural system.It is necessary to improve farmers’digital skills and cultural literacy,and strengthen the construction of“digital+agriculture”talent teams;Each major producing area should combine its own resource endowments to develop the digital economy according to local conditions.