基于CIA-ISM-BN煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故分析

Analysis of Coal Mine Gas Explosion Accident Based on CIA-ISM-BN

为识别动态情景下煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故的影响因素,推断因素之间的因果关系,采用CIA(Cross Impact Analysis)、ISM(Interpretive Structural Model)和BN(Bayesian Network)结合的情景建模方法来构建煤矿井下瓦斯爆炸事故风险评价模型。利用CIA-ISM组合生成不同影响级别下瓦斯爆炸事故影响因素的因果层次网络,并进行情景推断和分析。将层次网络映射到BN模型中,通过概率推理量化复杂依赖关系的层次网络,确定瓦斯爆炸的主要致因和造成的损害。结果表明:(1)重视监管机制、违规生产、管理技术、员工安全教育培训、违章作业和通风环境之间的微循环,可以有效阻断事故演化路径;(2)瓦斯爆炸事故发生下,造成人员伤亡、经济损失和社会影响以及有毒有害等次灾害的概率分别为94.7%,95.0%,24.0%;(3)不健全的监管机制是导致瓦斯爆炸事故发生的根本原因。

In order to identify the influencing factors of coal mine gas explosion accidents under dynamic scenarios and infer the causal relationship between the factors,a scenario modeling method combining CIA(Cross Impact Analysis),ISM(Interactive Structural Model),and BN(Bayesian Network)is used to construct a risk assessment model for coal mine gas explosion accidents.Firstly,the CIA-ISM combination is used to generate causal hierarchical networks of influencing factors of gas explosion accidents at different impact levels,and scenario inference and analysis are conducted.Then,the hierarchical network is mapped to the BN model,which with complex dependencies is quantified through probabilistic reasoning to determine the main causes and damage caused by gas explosions.The results show that:(1)The path of accident evolution can be effectively blocked through emphasizing the importance for micro-circulation between regulatory mechanisms,illegal production,management technology,employee safety education and training,illegal operations and ventilation environments;(2)Under the occurrence of gas explosion accidents,the probability of causing casualties,economic losses and toxic and harmful secondary disasters is 94.7%,95.0%,and 24%,respectively;(3)Incomplete regulatory mechanisms are the fundamental cause of gas explosion accidents.