美国分层网络威慑战略与中国的应对研究

The Layered Cyber Deterrence Strategy of the U.S.and the Contemplation of China's Response

近年来,美国按照分层网络威慑框架不断强化其网络威慑战略,即综合“塑造行为”“拒止收益”和“施加成本”三层威慑,在坚持“前置防御”和“持续接触”的同时,日益注重低烈度网络进攻行动,以维护美国的网络安全和全球主导地位。美国分层网络威慑战略以冷战思维将网络空间阵营化,不仅增加了全球网络空间治理的困难,还增加了国家间网络冲突的风险。由于国际社会至今尚未达成对网络空间行为规范的共识,现有国际法也缺乏有效的约束,美国的分层网络威慑战略加剧了与中国在网络领域发生危机甚至对抗的风险。对此,中国应进一步完善和落实相关法律法规,提高关键网络基础设施的安全韧性;在双边层面要做好应对美国技术“去风险”和危机管控的准备;在国际层面,要继续推进网络空间全球治理合作。

In recent years,the United States has continuously intensified its cyber deterrence strategy in accordance with a layered cyber deter rence framework,integrating three layers:shape behavior,deny benefit,and impose costs.While adhering to the principles of"defense forward"and"persistent engagement,"the United States placed heightened emphasis on low-intensity cyber operations to safeguard America's cybersecurity and uphold global leadership.The United States'layered cyber deterrence strategy,rooted in Cold War thinking,has led to the bloc confrontation of cyberspace,not only increasing the difficulties in global cyberspace governance but also escalating the risk of inter-state cyber conf licts.Due to the lack ofconsensus within the international community on norms of behavior in cyberspace and the inadequacy of existing international laws to provide effective constraints,the United States'layered cyber deterrence strategy has heightened the risk of crises or confrontations with China in the cyber domain.In response,China should further improve and implement relevant laws and regulations,enhance the resilience of critical cyber infrastructure,prepare for U.S.technological de-risking and crisis management at the bilateral level,and continue to promote cooperation in global cyberspace governance at the international level.