2021年7月中下旬青海省高温天气过程预测复盘总结

Review of High Temperature Weather Process Forecast in Qinghai Province in Mid-to-Late July 2021

2021年7月10-24日,青海北部持续多日晴好天气,全省平均气温、最高气温均呈升高态势,期间有11天日最高气温突破22.5℃。其中,共有22站出现日最高气温≥30℃的高温天气,根据青海省《气象灾害分级指标》(DB63/T372-2018),循化、乐都、平安、民和、尖扎、贵德、西宁、小灶火、诺木洪、冷湖、格尔木等11站连续3天日最高气温≥30℃,达到轻度高温热害标准。针对此次高温天气过程,青海省气候中心从不同提前量包括季节、月、延伸期尺度均给出了较好的预测:从趋势预测来看,对7月气温一致偏高并且大部地区偏高1℃以上的特征把握较好,但对柴达木盆地西北部和东部农业区部分地区气温偏高2℃~3℃把握不足;从过程预测来看,虽然预报出上旬后期至中下旬为升温过程,但对高温强度把握不足。在后期类似的高温天气过程预测中需加强高温过程诊断研究和对国内外主流模式的本地化释用,为本省高温过程客观定量的预测提供参考依据。

From July 10 to 24,2021,northern Qinghai continued to have sunny weather for many days,and the average and maximum temperatures in the province showed an increase trend,during which the daily maximum temperature exceeded 22.5℃for 11 days.Among them,a total of 22 stations had a high daily maximum temperature of≥30℃,according to Qinghai Province’s“Meteorological Disaster Grading Index”(DB63/T372-2018),11 stations of Xunhua,Ledu,Ping’an,Minhe,Jianza,Guide,Xining,Xiaozaohuo,Nuomhong,Lenghu,Golmud had a maximum daily temperature of≥30℃ for 3 consecutive days,reaching the standard of mild high temperature heat damage.In view of the high temperature weather process,Qinghai Climate Center gave good predictions from different advance quantities,including seasonal,monthly and extension scales:from the perspective of trend forecast,the characteristics of consistent high temperature in July and higher than 1℃ in most areas were well grasped.However,it’s not accurately predicted that the temperature was 2-3℃ higher in some parts of the eastern agricultural areas and northwestern in Qaidam Basin.From the perspective of weather process prediction,although accurate prediction of heating process has been made for the late early to mid late ten-day period,there was a lack of understanding of the intensity of high temperatures.In the prediction of similar high-temperature weather processes in the future,it is necessary to strengthen research on high-temperature process diagnosis and localized interpretation of mainstream models at home and abroad,providing a reference basis for objective and quantitative prediction of high-temperature processes in this province.