考虑台风时空特性的海上风电场群协同紧急防御策略

Collaborative emergency defense strategy for offshore wind farm clusters considering the spatial-temporal characteristics of a typhoon

极端天气发生率逐年升高,威胁电网安全稳定运行。为解决极端天气历史数据抽样建模存在局限性、极端天气预测不准确和电网应对自然灾害防御吸收能力不足等问题,提出一种考虑台风时空特性的海上风电场群协同紧急防御策略。首先,基于Batts梯度风模型分析台风时空特性与影响机理,量化台风物理信息与海上风电场出力间的耦合关系。然后,以偏差考核区间内的紧急防御成本最小为目标函数,提出了考虑台风时空特性的海上风电集群多时间尺度两阶段随机优化模型。模型第一阶段基于台风预报信息定制出包含常规机组备用出力、抽蓄机组启停计划、储能电站出力、计划弃风/切负荷量的防御资源预调度策略,第二阶段将台风预报的不确定性纳入决策过程中,基于灵活分布式资源制定紧急防御调整策略。最后,通过算例验证了所提紧急防御策略的有效性与经济性。

The incidence of extreme weather is increasing yearly,threatening the safe and stable operation of power grids.To solve the problems of limitations that exist in extreme weather historical data sampling modeling,inaccurate extreme weather prediction,and insufficient absorption capacity of the power grid to cope with natural disaster defense,this paper proposes a collaborative emergency defense strategy for offshore wind farm clusters that takes into account the spatial-temporal characteristics of typhoons.First,based on the Batts gradient wind model,it analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics of a typhoon and the influence mechanisms,and quantifies the coupling relationship between the physical information on the typhoon and the output of offshore wind farms.Then,a two-stage stochastic optimization model for offshore wind clusters with multiple time scales considering the spatial-temporal characteristics of typhoons is proposed with the objective function of minimizing the emergency defense cost within the deviation assessment interval.The first stage of the model is based on the typhoon forecast information to customize the defense resource pre-dispatch strategy including conventional unit standby output,pumped storage unit start/stop plan,energy storage plant output,and planned wind curtailment/load shedding.The second stage incorporates the typhoon forecast uncertainty into the decision-making process to formulate the emergency defense adjustment strategy based on the flexible distributed resources.Finally,a case study verifies the effectiveness and economy of the proposed emergency defense strategy.