山东省经济韧性时空分异及其影响因素

Spatio-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of economic resilience in Shandong Province

提高经济韧性不仅能有效抵御外部风险,还能够促进经济高质量发展.本文从风险抵抗能力、调整适应能力和创新转型能力3个维度构建山东省经济韧性综合评价指标体系,运用熵权法和地理探测器研究2002—2021年山东省经济韧性的时空分异及其影响因素.结果表明:1)从时间变化来看,山东省经济韧性呈现稳健增长态势,且风险抵抗能力和调整适应能力优于创新转型能力.2)在空间格局方面,山东省经济韧性大致呈现中东部高、南北低的分布特征,并表现出集聚趋势.风险抵抗能力表现出趋同特征,调整适应能力和创新转型能力表现出极化特征.3)产业结构和科技创新水平对山东省各城市经济韧性差异的影响最为显著,说明优化产业结构、提高科技创新水平是现阶段山东省经济高质量发展的重要驱动力.4)山东省经济韧性的影响因素之间存在明显的双因素增强和非线性增强关系,产业结构和科技创新水平交互作用对山东省经济韧性的影响力度最大.

Improving economic resilience can not only effectively resist the external risks,but also promote the highquality economic development.A comprehensive evaluation index system of economic resilience in Shandong Province is constructed from three dimensions:risk resistance ability,adjustment adapt ability,and innovation transformation ability,and the entropy weight method and geographic detector are used to study the spatio-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of economic resilience in Shandong Province from 2002 to 2021.The research findings are as follows:1)from the perspective of temporal changes,the economic resilience of Shandong Province has shown a steady growth trend,with its risk resistance ability and adjustment adapt ability being better than its innovation transformation ability.2)In terms of spatial pattern,the economic resilience of Shandong Province is characterized by a distribution pattern of high resilience in the central and eastern regions and low resilience in the north and south,and shows a clustering trend.The risk resistance ability exhibits convergence characteristics,while the adjustment adapt ability and innovation transformation ability exhibit polarization characteristics.3)The impact of industrial structure and technological innovation level on the economic resilience differences of various cities in Shandong Province is most significant,indicating that optimizing industrial structure and improving technological innovation level are important driving forces for the high-quality development of Shandong Province's economy at present.4)There is a clear dual factor enhancement and non-linear enhancement relationship between the influencing factors of economic resilience in Shandong Province,and the interaction between industrial structure and technological innovation level has the greatest impact on the economic resilience of Shandong Province.