2015—2021年常州市大气PM_(2.5)暴露对人群超额死亡的风险评估

Risk assessment of excess mortality caused by exposure to atmospheric PM_(2.5)among population in Changzhou City,2015-2021

目的评估2015—2021年常州市大气PM_(2.5)暴露对人群超额死亡的风险。方法收集全市人口死因、环境空气质量、气象等监测资料,采用广义相加模型分析大气PM_(2.5)对人群死亡的影响,从而估算因PM_(2.5)暴露导致的人群超额死亡数。结果2015—2021年常州市大气PM_(2.5)浓度每增加10μg/m3时,人群非意外死亡、循环系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.71%(95%CI:0.36%~1.05%)、0.91%(95%CI:0.37%~1.46%)和1.14%(95%CI:0.16%~2.13%)。按照WHO指导值,常州市大气PM_(2.5)浓度超标天数为2469 d,因PM_(2.5)暴露产生的人群非意外超额死亡数为3951人,占非意外总死亡人数比例为2.23%,2021年超额死亡数比2015年减少37.86%。其中,循环系统和呼吸系统疾病超额死亡数分别为2004人(2.90%)、725人(3.95%)。结论2015—2021年常州市大气PM_(2.5)浓度及其导致的人群超额死亡数均呈现总体下降趋势,大气污染防治措施产生较好的健康收益。

Objectives To evaluate the risk of excess mortality caused by atmospheric fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))exposure among population in Changzhou City from 2015 to 2021.Methods We collected the monitoring data about death causes of the whole population,environmental air quality and meteorology in Changzhou City.The generalized additive model was used to analyze the effect of PM_(2.5)on death among the population,and then the number of excess deaths from PM_(2.5)exposure was estimated.Results From 2015 to 2021,for each 10μg/m3 increase in atmospheric PM_(2.5)concentration in Changzhou City,the risks of total non-accidental death,death due to circulatory system diseases and death owing to respiratory system diseases among the population increased by 0.71%(95%CI:0.36%-1.05%),0.91%(95%CI:0.37%-1.46%)and 1.14%(95%CI:0.16%-2.13%)respectively.According to WHO recommended limits,the number of days in which the PM_(2.5)concentration exceeded the standard was 2,469 days.The number of non-accidental excess deaths due to PM_(2.5)exposure was 3,951,accounting for 2.23%of the total non-accidental deaths,and the number of excess deaths in 2021 decreased by 37.86%compared with that in 2015.Among them,the number of excess deaths due to circulatory system diseases and respiratory system diseases was 2,004(2.90%)and 725(3.95%)respectively.Conclusion The concentration of atmospheric PM_(2.5)and the number of excess deaths due to PM_(2.5)among population in Changzhou City during 2015-2021 both showed downward trends in general.Air pollution control measures bring better health benefits.