低碳试点政策与产业绿色转型:影响机制与政策启示

Low Carbon Pilot Policy and Green Transformation of Industries:Impact Mechanism and Policy Implications

政府环境规制旨在通过减少资源消耗和环境污染来获取更多经济利益,实现环境与经济的可持续发展,即实现经济增长与碳排放脱钩。理论分析低碳试点政策与产业绿色转型的关系,并基于双重差分模型,以2008—2019年240个地级市面板数据,检验低碳试点政策对产业绿色转型的影响机制与作用路径。研究表明,2010年低碳试点政策实施后,产业绿色转型水平的增速明显提升,显著促进了产业绿色转型水平,在经过安慰剂检验、排除创新型城市和智慧城市试点的影响、PSM-DID检验等一系列稳健性检验后,低碳试点政策能促进产业绿色转型的结论仍然成立。中介效应检验后发现技术创新和产业结构高级化是低碳试点政策推动产业绿色转型的两条重要路径。

Government environmental regulations aim to gain more economic benefits by reducing resource consumption and environmental pollution,thus achieving sustainable environmental and economic development,which refers to decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions.This paper theoretically analyzes the relationship between low-carbon pilot policies and green industrial transformation.Based on the Difference-in-Differences(DID)model,it empirically tests the impact mechanism and path of low-carbon pilot policies on green industrial transformation using panel data from 240 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2019.The research shows that after the implementation of the low-carbon pilot policy in 2010,the growth rate of green industrial transformation has increased significantly,indicating a notable promotion effect.This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness checks,including placebo tests,controlling for the influence of innovative and smart city pilots,and PSM-DID tests.Through mediation effect modeling,it is found that technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading are two important paths through which low-carbon pilot policies promote green industrial transformation.