中国钢铁产业碳排放脱钩弹性及驱动因素——基于Tapio脱钩模型与LMDI分析

The Decoupling Elasticity and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions from China s Steel Industry——Based on Tapio Decoupling Model and LMDI Decomposition Method

新发展阶段,明晰钢铁碳排放与产业增长的关联,厘清钢铁碳减排路径,将助力实现钢铁产业高质量发展,推动钢铁领域“双碳”进程。基于2000—2019年中国钢铁碳排放测算数据,运用Tapio脱钩模型分析中国钢铁产业碳排放与产业增长的关系,采用对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)对碳排放驱动因素进行分解。研究表明,2000—2019年中国钢铁产业碳排放与产业增长的脱钩状态较为稳定,基本上呈现弱脱钩状态。生产规模效应和资源效率效应是碳排放量增加的主要驱动因素,能源结构强度效应和能源消耗强度效应对碳排放具有抑制作用。建议从大幅增加钢铁行业科研投入、调整钢铁行业能源结构、创新工艺流程、制定科学合理的发展规模等方面开展钢铁产业碳减排工作,助力低碳钢铁产业高质量发展。

In this new developmental phase,it is of vital importance to elucidate the nexus between carbon emissions and growth in the steel industry,and delineate the carbon reduction pathway.This elucidation can catalyze high-quality development in the steel sector and advance the“Dual Carbon”objectives within this realm.By utilizing carbon emissions data from China s steel industry for the period 2000—2019,the Tapio decoupling model was deployed to scrutinize the relationship between carbon emissions and industry growth.The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)method was adopted for the decomposition of carbon emission drivers.The study indicates that from 2000 to 2019,the decoupling state between carbon emissions and industry growth in China s steel industry was primarily weak,demonstrating relative stability.The production scale effect and resource efficiency effect are the chief propellants of rising carbon emissions,whereas the energy structure and consumption intensity effects serve to restrain emissions.To facilitate a reduction in carbon emissions in the steel industry and foster high-quality development under low carbon emissions,it is recommended to significantly augment research investment in the steel industry,adjust the industry s energy structure,innovate process flows,and envisage an evidence-based development scale.