中美双边产业链供应链行业产品韧性评估

Evaluation on Sectoral Product Resilience of Sino-US Bilateral Industrial and Supply Chains

基于HS 6分位产品贸易数据,我们评估中美双边产业链供应链行业产品韧性发现,2022年中国从美国进口脆弱性主要为玉米、食用高粱等上游初级产品和疫苗、核反应堆零件、航空器等高技术产品,对美国出口脆弱性集中于视频游戏控制器、节日娱乐用品等下游低技术产品。结合贸易规模、技术密集度和市场竞争力,我们识别出当前中国就中美双边贸易需要重点关注的产供链缺口:大宗农产品产供链和航空航天、生化免疫、核电、医疗器械等高技术产供链进口供给端缺口,以及计算机制造、娱乐体育用品、塑料制餐饮具、家具家居等劳动密集型制造品产供链出口需求端缺口。基于2017~2022年的动态评估结果显示,中美两国关税政策是影响中国大宗农产品进口稳定性的主要因素;核电和生化免疫产供链来自美国的供给波动较大,应对能力欠佳;娱乐体育用品产供链面临的美国市场需求波动较大,脆弱性突出。

Based on HS6-digit product data,we evaluate the resilience of China’s trade products in the industrial and supply chains(ISC)with the US.We find that in 2022,the fragility of China's imports to the US is mainly in upstream primary products such as corn and edible sorghum,as well as high-tech products such as vaccines,nuclear reactor parts,and aircraft.The fragility of exports to the US is mainly in downstream low-tech products such as video game controllers and festival entertainment products.Considering trade scale,technology intensity,and market competitiveness,we identify the industrial and supply chain gaps that China needs to focus on in Sino-US bilateral trade,including the import supply side gaps of bulk agricultural ISCs,the import supply side gaps of high-tech ISCs such as aerospace,biochemical immunity,nuclear power,and medical equipment,as well as the export demand side gaps of labor-intensive manufacturing ISCs such as computer manufacturing,entertainment and sports equipment,plastic catering utensils,furniture and home furnishings.Based on the dynamic evaluation from 2017 to 2022,the tariff policy of China and the US is the main factor affecting the stability of China’s bulk agricultural product imports.The supply of nuclear power and biochemical immunity from the US fluctuates greatly and has poor response capability.The entertainment and sports equipment is facing significant fluctuations in demand from the US market,with prominent fragility.