基于随机演化博弈的农产品电子商务投资困境解决路径

Solving the Dilemma of Agricultural Products E-commerce Investment Based on Stochastic Evolutionary Game Model

完善物流基础设施是推动农村电子商务发展的重要一步,有利于改善国民整体收入水平,缩小城乡收入差距。农村基础设施建设耗资巨大,要摆脱投资困境,关键在于多方协同合作。基于政府、企业以及农户的合作策略建立随机演化博弈模型,收集广东省相关数据进行仿真分析,比较各部门的战略采纳及其所受影响。研究表明:农户利益与社会效益是影响政府决策的主要因素;政府补贴对促进合作的效果有限,产业发展前景是吸引企业和农户参与的主要因素;利益分配对企业和农户的决策影响较大,分配失当将导致合作失败;建设成本是博弈的核心,如何降低建设成本并合理分配各部门的承担比例是推动农产品电子商务可持续发展的关键。通过研究,政府不仅需要考虑直接的经济效益,还应考虑社会效益和农户福祉。因此,在制定政策时,政府应当平衡多方利益,确保政策不仅有利于经济增长,同时促进社会公平;产业发展前景对企业和农户的吸引力更大,在促进农产品电子商务发展中,建立有效的激励机制,如强化市场前景展示和提高市场准入门槛,可能比简单的财政补贴更有效;利益分配合理对于多方合作的成功至关重要,合作策略的选择和调整需要更多地考虑各方的利益平衡,以确保合作长期可持续。

Improving the logistics infrastructure is a crucial step in advancing rural e-commerce development,benefiting national income levels and narrowing urban-rural income disparities.The construction of rural infrastructure is costly,and overcoming investment dilemmas requires collaborative efforts among multiple parties.The authors establish a stochastic evolutionary game model based on the cooperative strategies of the government,businesses,and farmers,and conduct a simulation analysis using data from Guangdong Province to compare the strategic adoption and impacts on various sectors.It is found that:farmers'interests and social benefits significantly influence government decisions;government subsidies have limited effects on promoting cooperation,while the prospects of industrial development play a key role in attracting businesses and farmers;the distribution of benefits greatly affects the decisions of businesses and farmers,and improper distribution can lead to the failure of cooperation;and construction costs are the core of the game,and how to reduce these costs and allocate the burden among sectors appropriately is crucial for the sustainable development of agricultural e-commerce.So,the government should consider not only the direct economic benefits but also the social benefits and farmers'welfare.Hence,while formulating related policies,the governments should balance the interests of all parties to ensure that the policies can not only contribute to economic growth but also promote social equity.Industrial development prospects will better attract businesses and farmers;in promoting the development of agricultural e-commerce,formulating the effective incentive mechanisms,such as the focus on showcasing market prospects and raising market entry thresholds,could be more effective than simple financial subsidies.The rationality of benefit distribution is vital for the success of multi-party cooperation,and the selection and adjustment of cooperative strategies should consider the balance of interests among all parties to ensure the long-term sustainability of cooperation.