中国CO_(2)排放量的动态演进、地区差异及空间集聚特征--来自中国2000-2019年2898个区县的经验证据

Dynamics Evolution,Regional Differences and Spatial Agglomeration Characteristics of CO_(2) Emissions in Counties of China:Empirical Evidence from 2898 Districts and Counties in China from 2000 to 2019

利用中国2000--2019年2898个区县CO_(2)排放量的面板数据,综合运用核密度估计、Dagum基尼系数、标准差椭圆和探索性空间数据分析等方法揭示了中国县域尺度CO_(2)排放量的时空演变格局。研究发现:(1)全国整体与东部、中部、西部、东北四大区域CO_(2)排放量总体均呈波动上升趋势,其中全国整体与东部、中部、东北区域均表现为多极分化现象,西部区域存在两极分化现象。(2)中国CO_(2)排放量的总体差异呈波动上升趋势,总体差异的主要来源由超变密度与区域间差异共同构成。(3)区位分布呈偏东北一偏西南走向的空间格局,分布重心趋于西北移动。(4)空间集聚模式以“高-高”型集聚和“低-低”型集聚为主,其中“高-高”型集聚涉及的区县总体较少且主要集中分布在环渤海地区、长江三角洲、东北中部、珠江三角洲、乌昌地区、港澳台地区及宁夏、陕西、山西与内蒙古交界的狭长地带。

Based on the panel data of CO_(2) emissions of 2898 counties(districts)in China from 2000 to 2019,the temporal and spatial evolution pattern of CO_(2) emissions at the county level in China was revealed by using the methods of nuclear den-sity estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient,standard deviation ellipse,and exploratory spatial data analysis.The results show that:(1)The CO_(2) emissions of the whole country and the four regions of the east,middle,west,and northeast are generally fluctuating and rising,among which the whole country and the east,middle,and northeast regions are multipolar,and the western region is polarized.(2)The overall difference in CO_(2) emissions in China shows a fluctuating upward trend,and the main source of the overall difference is composed of hyper-variable density and regional differences.(3)The spatial pat-tern of location distribution is northeast-southwest,and the distribution center tends to move northwest.(4)Spatial ag-glomeration patterns are mainly“high-high”agglomeration and“low-low”agglomeration,among which“high-high” ag-glomeration involves fewer counties and districts and is mainly distributed in Bohai Rim,Pearl River Delta,Northeast China,Pearl River Delta,Wuchang,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan,as well as the narrow strip at the junction of Ningxia,Shaanxi,Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.