贸易协定如何影响中国进口?——基于条款深度的视角

How Do Preferential Trade Agreements Aff ect Chinese Imports?--From the Perspective of the Provision Depth

本文基于2001~2019年107个中国贸易伙伴国的面板数据,运用多维固定效应泊松伪极大似然估计方法 (PPML法)估计了贸易协定及其深度对中国进口的影响。研究发现,贸易协定显著扩大了中国从协定签署国的进口规模,且该结论在考虑贸易协定条款的法律效力和时滞效应并使用工具变量法进行内生性处理及稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步分析发现,不同贸易协定条款对中国进口规模的影响存在异质性。“WTO-plus”条款显著促进了中国进口,其正向促进作用主要来自其中包含的十项边境条款;条款总深度对高科技含量产品和中间品进口存在较显著的正向影响,对中等科技含量产品和最终产品的进口存在较显著的负向影响,其中对中间品进口的促进作用主要来自“WTO-plus”条款,对中等科技含量产品进口的负向影响则主要来自“WTO-extra”条款。本文研究结论为我国通过签署贸易协定主动扩大进口、优化贸易结构提供了实证支撑。

Based on the panel data of 107 Chinese trading partners from 2001 to 2019,the impact of trade agreements and its depth on China’s imports was estimated by the PPML method.The empirical result shows that:First,trade agreements have signifi cantly expanded China’s imports from agreement signatories;Second,the infl uence of diff erent trade agreements on Chinese imports is heterogeneous.The“WTO-plus”clause has signifi cantly promoted China’s imports,with its positive promotion eff ect mainly coming from the ten border clauses included in it;Third,the total depth of the clause has a significant positive impact on the import of high-tech content products and intermediate products,while has a significant negative impact on the import of medium technology content products and fi nal products.Among them,the promotion eff ect of intermediate products mainly comes from the“WTO-plus”clause,and the negative impact on the medium technology products mainly comes from the“WTO-extra”clause.The regression results remained robust after using the instrumental variable method.This study provides empirical support for China to actively expand imports and optimize its trade structure by signing trade agreements.