耦合InVEST与PLUS模型的县域土地利用动态模拟与碳储量预测——以怀来县为例

Dynamic simulation of land use and carbon storage predictionby coupling InVEST and PLUS models:taking Huailai County as an example

土地利用变化是导致生态系统碳储量变化的主要因素之一。本研究利用PLUS模型,在分析2012—2022年怀来县土地利用的基础上,结合社会经济和自然资源情况,预测2027年土地利用空间结构,将土地利用数据与研究区碳密度结合,带入InVEST模型,计算各时期碳储量。研究结果显示,①2012—2022年,建设用地面积和林地面积持续增加,耕地面积持续减少。②对2027年土地利用状况预测,其中耕地579.51 km 2,林地548.49 km 2,灌木7.25 km 2,草地410.48 km 2,水域57.63 km 2,裸土地0.17 km 2,建设用地179.42 km 2。建设用地增加幅度有所降低。③碳储量分别为2012年120.59×105 t,2017年118.99×105 t,2022年120.42×105 t,预测到2027年碳储量121.56×105 t。④限制林地,草地向其他土地利用类型转变,持续保护耕地,有利于怀来县碳储量的增加。

Land use change is one of the main factors leading to changes in carbon storage in ecosystems.Based on the analysis of land use in Huailai County from 2012 to 2022,combined with socio-economic and natural resource conditions,the PLUS model is used to predict land use in 2027.The land use data are combined with the carbon density of the study area and input into the InVEST model to calculate the carbon storage in each period.The results show that①From 2012 to 2022,the construction land area and forestland area continued to increase.The cultivated land area continued to decrease.The forest area continued to increase.②In 2027,the cultivated land in the land use status is predicted to be 579.51 km 2,forestland 548.49 km 2,shrub 7.25 km 2,grassland 410.48 km 2,waters 57.63 km 2,bare land 0.17 km 2,construction land 179.42 km 2.The increase in construction land has decreased.③Carbon reserves are as follows:120.59×105 t in 2012,118.99×105 t in 2017,120.42×105 t in 2022.It is predicted that the carbon storage will be 121.56×105 t by 2027.④Restricting forestland and grassland to other land use types,continuously protecting arable land,is conducive to the increase of carbon storage in Huailai County.