中国中等收入群体规模测度与变动趋势分析

The Measurement and Trend Analysis of the Scale of China’s Middle-Income Group

中等收入群体规模的壮大,是共同富裕的重要标志。在梳理相关研究,尝试将官方数据按还原法进行处理后,以多种方法按绝对标准和相对标准测算和比较了中国整体、城乡之间及地区之间中等收入群体的规模差异和变化,发现在考察期内伴随经济增长按绝对标准的中等收入群体规模大幅提升,而按相对标准的中等收入群体规模总体呈现先下降后上升的趋势,与基尼系数变动方向相反并呈现规律性;对城乡分别考察发现中等收入群体绝大部分集中于城镇,近些年城乡差距较为稳定,甚至有缩小态势;通过比较分析各省区数据发现省际差异明显,中等收入群体规模与各省区生产总值呈明显正相关;三大地区比较也差别明显,但相互间分配格局有改善趋势;据此所做趋势预测表明,通过艰苦努力至2035年全国中等收入群体比重有望大幅提升。

The growth of the middle-income group is an important symbol of common prosperity.After summarizing relevant studies and trying to sort out official data according to the reduction method,this paper uses various methods to calculate and compare the differences and changes in the scale of China’s middleincome group across China,urban and rural areas,and regions based on absolute and relative standards.It is found that during the inspection period,the scale of China’s middle-income group in accordance with absolute standards increased significantly with economic growth.At the same time,according to relative standards,the overall scale of middle-income groups shows a trend of first decreasing and then increasing,which is contrary to the direction of change in Gini coefficient and shows regularity.Through separating inspections of urban and rural areas,it was found that the vast majority of middle-income groups are concentrated in urban areas.In recent years,the urban-rural gap has been relatively stable,and there has even been a trend of narrowing.Through comparative analysis of data from various provinces,it was found that there are significant differences between provinces,and there is a significant positive correlation between the scale of middle-income groups and the GRDP of each province.There are significant differences among the three major regions of the Eastern China,Central China and Western China,but there is a trend of improvement in the distribution pattern among them.According to the forecast results,the proportion of China’s middle-income will increase significantly by 2035 through hard work.