生产性服务业集聚对绿色发展效率的非线性影响——基于空间衰减与门槛效应的研究

Non-linear Effects of Productive Service Agglomeration on Green Development Efficiency:Based on Spatial Attenuation and Threshold Effect

基于空间距离衰减与门槛效应的研究视角,利用2003—2018年长江经济带108个地级市的面板数据,综合采用空间面板杜宾模型(SPDM)与面板门槛模型(PTR),实证考察生产性服务业集聚对绿色发展效率的空间衰减规律与门槛效应特征。研究发现:(1)生产性服务业集聚对绿色发展效率具有显著的空间外溢效应,这种外溢效应呈现出明显的空间衰减特征,即在100公里以内是负向溢出的密集区域,随着地理距离的增加,负向空间溢出效应大致呈逐渐递减趋势;120~210公里为正向溢出的密集区域,随着地理距离的增加,正向空间溢出效应大致呈先增后减的倒U型变化趋势。(2)生产性服务业集聚对绿色发展效率的影响随着城市规模的扩大以及经济发展水平与信息化水平的提升,表现出“梯度式”增强的特征,但随着生产性服务业集聚达到一定门槛后,其对绿色发展效率的提升作用却明显下降。因此,应科学合理引导生产性服务业集聚来促进绿色发展,打破生产性服务业要素流动的体制性障碍,适度扩大城市规模,努力提高经济发展水平和信息化水平。

Based on the research perspective of spatial distance attenuation and threshold effect,with panel data of 108prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2018,the spatial panel Durbin model(SPDM) and the panel threshold model(PTR) were comprehensively used to empirically investigate the spatial attenuation law and threshold effect characteristics of the agglomeration of productive service industries on green development efficiency.The empirical results show that:(i) Productive service industry agglomeration has an obvious spatial spillover effect on green development efficiency,and this spatial spillover shows obvious spatial attenuation characteristics.Within 100 kilometers,it is a dense area of negative spatial spillover,With the increase of geographical distance,the negative spatial spillover effect generally shows a gradually decreasing trend;while 120-210 kilometers is a dense area of positive spatial spillover.and with the increase of geographical distance,the positive spatial spillover effect roughly shows an inverted U-shaped trend of increasing to decreasing.(ii) With the regulation of urban scale,economic development and informatization,the influence of productive service industry agglomeration on the efficiency of green development is characterized by “gradient” enhancement.However,as productive services agglomeration reaches a certain threshold,its effect on improving the efficiency of green development is significantly reduced.Therefore,it is necessary to scientifically and reasonably guide the agglomeration of productive service industries to promote green development,break down institutional barriers to the flow of productive service industry factors,moderately expand urban scale,and strive to improve economic development and informatization.