西北太平洋“巴蓬”台风的预报评估

Forecast Assessment of typhoon "Phanfone" in the northwest pacific

热带气旋属于一种具有强大破坏力的灾害性天气,常常伴随狂风暴雨和风暴潮。本文以南海和西北太平洋上的“巴蓬”台风为主要研究对象,对评估台风的路径和强度预报效果进行分析,希望找出和国际先进预报水平的差距。研究结果表明,台风路径预报的平均绝对误差(MAE)和均方根误差(RMSE)都随预报时效增加明显增长,相关系数则在60h预报时效以后急剧减小。以台风中心气压标征的台风强度预报误差在60h达到极大,过后预报误差变小。而台风最大风速的预报误差也有类似特征。

Tropical cyclones,characterized by their powerful destructive force,often accompany fierce winds,heavy rain,and storm surges.This paper takes Typhoon "Phanfone" in the South China Sea and Northwest Pacific as the main research object,and analyzes the forecast accuracy of typhoon paths and intensities,in an attempt to identify the gaps from international advanced forecast levels.The study results show that the average absolute error(MAE) and root mean square error(RMSE) of typhoon path forecast increase significantly with the extension of forecast lead time,while the correlation coefficient decreases sharply after 60 hours of forecast lead time.The forecast error of typhoon intensity,represented by the central pressure of the typhoon,reaches its maximum at 60 hours and then decreases.The forecast error of the maximum wind speed of the typhoon also shows similar characteristics.