种植结构变迁对种植业碳排放的影响

The Impact of Changes in Planting Structure on Carbon Emissions in the Planting Industry

趋粮化变迁是当前种植结构动态调整的主要趋势,种植结构变迁改变了种植业碳排放逻辑,为种植业碳排放减量提供了新思路。本文以粮食主产区的山东省为例,选择2000-2020年山东省各地市面板数据,基于IPCC经典碳排放测算法、双向固定效应模型,分析种植结构趋粮化变迁对种植业碳排放的影响。研究发现:种植结构趋粮化变迁有效抑制了种植业碳排放,形成粮食安全与种植业碳排放减量的共存逻辑;对于山东省内粮食播种面积占比相对较少的地区,农业种植结构向粮食作物集中对种植业碳排放的抑制作用更为显著;此外,本文进一步将研究范围扩大至粮食主产区,验证了种植结构趋粮化变迁抑制种植业碳排放结论在粮食主产区的普遍适用性。因此,现阶段应看到种植结构趋粮化变迁背后的种植业减碳价值,各地区,尤其是粮食主产区应在保障粮食安全基础上,赋予种植结构趋粮化变迁关于推动地区农业绿色低碳发展的政策考量,促进国家粮食安全和“双碳”目标的双赢。

The changes in grain-oriented is the main trend of the current dynamic adjustment in plant-ing structure,and the changes in planting structure has changed the logic of carbon emissions in plant-ing industries and provides a new way for the reduction of carbon emissions in planting industries.This paper selected panel data from various regions in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2020,and analyzed the impact of grain-oriented planting structure on carbon emissions from cropping industry based on IPCC classic carbon emission measurement algorithm and two-way fixed effects model.It was found that,the changes in grain-oriented planting structure effectively inhibited carbon emissions from cropping industry and fostered the coexistence logic of food security and carbon emission reduc-tion in cropping industry.For areas with a relatively low proportion of grain sow in Shandong Province,the concentration of agricultural planting structure to grain crops took a more prominent in-hibitory toll on carbon emissions in cropping industry.In addition,this paper further expanded the scope of research to the main grain-producing areas,verifying the common applicability of the con-clusion that the changes in grain-oriented planting structure inhibited the carbon emissions from the cropping industry in the main grain-producing areas.Therefore,at this stage,we should see the car-bon reduction value of the cropping industry behind the changes in grain-oriented planting structure.All regions,especially the major grain-producing areas,should give policy considerations to promot-ing the green and low-carbon development of regional agriculture in the context of the grain-oriented changes in planting structure on the basis of ensuring food security,so as to promote a win-win situ-ation for national food security and the“double carbon”goals.