土地流转对农业经济韧性的影响——基于准自然实验的实证分析

The Impact of Land Transfer on the Resilience of Agricultural Economy:An Empirical Analysis Based on Quasi-natural Experiments

基于2007-2022年中国30个省级行政区(西藏和港澳台除外)的面板数据,采用双重差分模型,实证检验土地流转政策对农业经济韧性的影响。研究发现,土地流转政策能够有效提高农业经济韧性,并且规模化经营在土地流转政策影响农业经济韧性的过程中起到“桥梁”作用,经过稳健性检验证明结论依然成立;异质性分析发现,土地流转政策对农业经济韧性的促进作用在东部地区、粮食主产区和胡焕庸线东南侧更强。

Based on the panel data of 30 Chinese province-level division(except Xizang,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2007 to 2022,this paper empirically examined the impact of land transfer policies on agricultural economic resilience using a dual difference model.It was found that,land transfer policy could effectively improve agricultural economic resilience,and scale management played a“Bridge”role in the process of land transfer policy affecting agricultural economic resilience,the conclusion was still valid after the robustness test,and the heterogeneity analysis showed that,the promotion effect of land transfer policy on agricultural economic resilience was stronger in the east-ern region,the main grain producing areas and the southeast of the Hu Huan yong line.