中国碳排放权交易价格影响因素分析——基于全国碳市场价格时间序列的VEC动态分析

Research on Price Impact Factor of China's Carbon Emission Exchange:VEC Dynamic Analysis based on the Time Series of National Carbon Market Prices

“双碳”目标提出后,全国碳市场发展面临新的机遇与挑战。探究影响碳交易价格的因素,对完善碳市场交易机制从而实现“双碳”目标具有现实意义。已有研究仅以几个碳交易试点为研究对象,由于各个试点的交易价格、气体种类和交易量等相差较大,研究结果存在较大差异且不全面,故有必要将新上市的全国碳市场纳入研究。以2021年7月上市的全国碳交易点和碳交易试点为研究对象,基于外部性理论、产权理论、环境金融理论分析碳交易价格的理论影响因素,并建立VEC模型进行实证分析。结果表明:碳交易价格受市场中动力煤价格、上证指数负向影响;受欧盟碳期货价格、空气质量指数、天然气价格正向影响。通过对全国碳交易点和碳交易试点的对比分析,发现全国碳交易价格受市场因素影响较大,且逐期增强,说明新建立的全国碳交易市场的市场效应更强。

Since the proposition of“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”goal,the development of the Chinese carbon market is facing both new opportunities and challenges.Exploring the factors affecting the price of carbon market emis-sion exchange is of practical significance to improving the carbon market trading mechanism,thereby achieving the goal of“the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”.The existing studies only focus on a few carbon trading pilots.Because the trading prices,gas types and trading volumes of each pilot are quite different,the research results are relatively dif-ferent and incomplete.Therefore,it is necessary to make the newly listed National Carbon Market into the study.In this paper,the National Carbon Trading Point listed in July 2021 and the carbon trading pilot as research objects,and ana-lyze the theoretical influencing factors of carbon trading price based on the externality theory,property rights theory,en-vironmental finance theory,and establish the VEC model for empirical analysis.The results show that the carbon trading price is negatively affected by the thermal coal price and Shanghai Composite Index in the market;it is positively affect-ed by EU carbon futures price,air quality index and natural gas price.Through the comparative analysis of the national carbon trading point and the carbon trading pilot,it is found that the National Carbon Trading price is greatly affected by market factors,and is increasing periodically,which also indicates that the newly established National Carbon Market has a stronger market effect.