双碳目标下新型电力系统规划与省域减排路径——以中国南方某省为例

Research on New Power System Planning and Provincial Emission Reduction Path under Dual Carbon Target-A Province in Southern China as an Example

省域作为地方行政主体和上下联动纽带,亟需依托地方资源禀赋构建省级以新能源为主体的新型电力系统模型,规划省域减排路径。耦合电力系统扩容规划与小时级高分辨率运行模拟,给出地方电力系统低碳转型路径,并以中国南方某省为例进行分析,以期为中国能源系统转型、新型电力系统建设与地方电力系统减排路径规划提供科学支撑,助力双碳目标实现。研究结果表明:省域电力系统转型需要把握新能源与传统能源配合发展的节奏和强度:(1)该省电力系统在2030年碳达峰,2060碳中和,峰值为约3亿吨。(2)2060年该省电力系中非化石能源装机占比86.40%,将达到17102.72万千瓦。其中,核能装机占比26.18%,其次为光伏和气电,煤电仍然保留1.26%。(3)2060年该省新型电力系统总成本为2.8万亿元,是2022年投资的33倍。其中,运维成本和投资成本占比分别为29.53%、21.54%。建议从优化可再生能源、外调电力和储能的部署、探索建立容量市场机制、完善电力跨省跨区交易等方面开展部署,以实现在2060年前碳中和的目标。

As the main body of local administration and the link between the upper and lower levels,provinces urgently need to rely on local resource endowments to build a new power system with new energy as the main body and plan the path of provincial emission abatement.Therefore,this paper,by combining power system capacity expansion planning with hour-level high resolution operation simulation provided a low-carbon transition path for local power systems,and analyzed a province in southern China as an example.so as to provide scientific support for China's energy system transformation,new power system construction and local power system emission reduction path planning,helping to achieve the dual carbon goal.The results show that:the transformation of the provincial power system needs to grasp the rhythm and intensity of the development of new energy and traditional energy.(1)The power system of this province will reach its carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutralist in 2060,with a peak of about 300 million tons.(2)In 2060,the installed capacity of non-fossil energy of the new power system in the province will account for 86.40%,reaching 171.0272GW,of which nuclear energy will account for 26.18%,followed by photovoltaic and gas power,and coal power will remain 1.26%.(3)The total cost of the new power system in 2060 will be 2.8 trillion yuan in the province,33 times the investment in 2022,of which operation and maintenance costs and investment costs accounted for 29.53%and 21.54%respectively.It is suggested that the deployment of renewable energy,external power transfer and energy storage should be optimized,the establishment of capacity market mechanism should be explored,and cross-provincial and cross-regional electricity trading should be improved to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality before 2060.