不确定性冲击、数字技术创新与供应链韧性

Uncertainty Shock, Digital Technology Innovation and Supply Chain Resilience

数字技术是数字经济发展的核心引擎,正在深刻改变社会生产生活方式并逐渐成为应对经济不确定性的重要力量。本文以2020年新冠肺炎疫情冲击为例,从供应链韧性的视角出发实证考察了数字技术创新应对不确定性冲击的效果及作用机制。研究结果显示,在面对不确定性冲击时,相较于数字技术创新水平较低的企业,数字技术创新水平较高的企业供应链效率显著更高,即数字技术创新有力地缓解了不确定性冲击对供应链稳定性带来的负面影响,提升了供应链韧性。并且,当公司与供应商或客户地理距离越远以及所在地区不确定性冲击越严重时,数字技术创新对供应链韧性的提升效果越明显。机制分析发现,数字技术创新主要通过降低不确定性冲击下企业的内部协调成本和外部交易成本强化供应链韧性。拓展性分析结果表明,所在地区数字技术创新能力强的企业数量越多,遭受冲击后其经济复苏越快。总体上,本文的研究初步证实了强化数字技术创新能有效提升不确定性冲击下供应链的安全稳定,强化经济发展韧性。

Digital technology is the core engine driving the development of the digital economy,profoundly changing the way society produces and lives,and gradually becoming an important force in dealing with economic uncertainty.Taking the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 as an example,this paper empirically investigates the effect and mechanism of digital technology innovation in response to uncertainty shocks from the perspective of supply chain resilience.The results show that when facing uncertainty impact,the supply chain efficiency of enterprises with higher levels of digital technology innovation is significantly higher than that of enterprises with lower levels of digital technology innovation,that is,digital technology innovation effectively mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty shocks on supply chain stability and enhances supply chain resilience.Furthermore,when companies are located farther away from their suppliers or customers or face more severe uncertainty shocks in their region,the enhancement effect of digital technology innovation on supply chain resilience becomes more pronounced.Mechanism analysis reveals that digital technology innovation strengthens supply chain resilience by reducing internal coordination costs and external transaction costs for companies under uncertainty shocks.Additional analysis indicates that a greater number of companies with strong digital technology innovation capabilities in a region lead to faster economic recovery after being impacted by crises.Overall,this study preliminarily confirms that strengthening digital technology innovation can effectively enhance safety and stability within supply chains under uncertainty shocks while also reinforcing economic development resilience.