“双碳”目标下油气行业固定资产投资对碳排放的影响研究

IMPACTS OF FIXED ASSET INVESTMENT ON CARBON EMISSION IN OIL-GAS SECTOR UNDER“DUAL CARBON”OBJECTIVE

为了厘清油气行业固定资产投资与碳排放之间的关系,本文将2002—2021年我国油气行业面板数据作为研究样本,通过构建固定效应模型实证研究了油气行业固定资产投资对碳排放的影响作用,并采用中介效应模型,运用逐步回归方法验证了油气行业固定资产投资、人均研发投入与碳排放之间的作用关系及其影响机制。研究结果表明:1)油气行业固定资产投资显著降低了碳排放比值,其影响系数为-1.913,表明通过加大油气行业的固定资产投资能够显著降低该行业的二氧化碳排放。本文在运用替换被解释变量、替换解释变量,以及增加控制变量等方法开展进一步回归分析后发现,上述检验结果依然稳健。2)人均研发投入在固定资产投资与碳排放比值之间发挥着部分中介作用,其中介效应值为24.7%。此外,油气行业的固定资产投资还显著降低了人均研发投入,而人均研发投入通过推动绿色技术创新则可以有效抑制碳排放比值。3)油气行业固定资产投资对碳排放的影响作用是短期的且影响系数较小,对主营业务收入的影响作用是长期的且影响系数较大。4)在我国油气行业的稳定增长时期与转型升级时期之内,固定资产投资对碳排放比值的影响作用具有明显的差异性。异质性检验结果表明,在油气行业的稳定增长期内,固定资产投资与碳排放比值之间并无显著的相关关系,而在油气行业的转型升级期内,固定资产投资则显著抑制了碳排放比值。

This paper,aiming at the relation between fixed asset investment and carbon emission in oil-gas sector,uses China s 2002 to 2021 oil-gas sector panel data to establish a fixed effect model for exploring the impacts of fixed asset investment on carbon emission,and employs mediating effect model and stepwise regression to study the relation among fixed asset investment,R&D investment per capita and carbon emission in oil-gas sector and the impacting mechanism.Fixed asset investment in oil-gas sector has largely decreased carbon emission ratio with an impact coefficient at-1.913,which means increasing fixed asset investment in oil-gas sector can outstandingly decrease carbon dioxide emission.Regression on replacing explained variables/explaining variables and adding controlling variables confirms the above results.R&D investment per capita plays a mediating role between fixed asset investment and carbon emission ratio with a mediating value at 24.7%,fixed asset investment in the oil-gas sector significantly reduced R&D investment per capita,while R&D investment per capita can effectively limit carbon emission ratio via green technical innovation.The impact of fixed asset investment on carbon emissions in the oil-gas sector is short-term and the impact coefficient is small,while the impact on main business income is long-term and the impact coefficient is large.During stably growing and transforming periods in China s oil-gas sector,fixed asset investment difference impacts carbon emission ratio,heterogeneity test showing that there is no obvious correlation between fixed asset investment and carbon emission ratio during the stably growing period,and that fixed asset investment can largely limit carbon emission ratio during transforming/upgrading period in oil-gas sector.