中国典型省份经济活动和居民生活碳排放驱动因素分解

DECOMPOSITION OF THE DRIVERS OF CARBON EMISSIONS FROM ECONOMIC OPERATIONS AND RESIDENTS LIVINGS IN REPRESENTATIVE PROVINCES IN CHINA

由于我国各省份(自治区、直辖市)在经济发展水平、产业结构、能源消费模式等方面均存在着较大差异,从而使得各省份的碳排放特征复杂多样,而通过识别、把握不同省份的碳排放驱动因素,则有助于我国“双碳”战略目标的实现。为此,本文在Q型聚类分析的基础上,根据人均GDP与碳排放强度将我国30个省份划分为领先型、探索型、改革型、问题型4个集群,并从中选择北京市、四川省、天津市、内蒙古自治区分别作为领先型、探索型、改革型、问题型省份的代表,从经济活动和居民生活产生的碳排放角度入手,采用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(LMDI)来分析研究2000—2019年我国4个典型省份的碳排放驱动因素,以及驱动因素中各个效应对二氧化碳排放发挥的具体作用。研究结果表明:1)北京市、四川省、天津市、内蒙古自治区由经济活动人口效应、经济活动人均GDP效应驱动的碳排放量均呈现出上升的发展趋势;由经济活动经济结构效应、经济活动能耗强度效应、经济活动能源结构效应驱动的碳排放量则均呈现出下降的发展趋势。2)北京市、四川省、天津市、内蒙古自治区由居民生活人口效应、居民生活能耗强度效应驱动的二氧化碳排放量均呈现出上升的发展趋势。3)北京市、天津市由居民生活城镇化效应驱动的碳排放量均呈现出下降的发展趋势,而四川省、内蒙古自治区由居民生活城镇化效应驱动的碳排放量则呈现出上升的发展趋势。4)北京市、四川省、内蒙古自治区由居民生活能源结构效应驱动的碳排放量均呈现出下降的发展趋势,而天津市由居民生活能源结构效应驱动的碳排放量则呈现出上升的发展趋势。

China s provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)vary in their economic development,industrial structures,energy consuming modes,which complicates their carbon emission features.To identify their carbon emission drives in different provinces can help reach China s strategy of“dual carbon”.This paper uses Q-type cluster to divide China s 30 provinces into 4 clusters:leading,exploring,reforming and troubling based on GDP per capita and carbon emission intensity,and presented by Beijing,Sichuan,Tianjin and Inner Mongolia respectively.LMDI is used to study their 2000 to 2019 driving factors for increasing carbon emission from economic operations and residents livings.Beijing,Sichuan,Tianjin and Inner Mongolia s carbon emission shows a rising trend by population effect of economic operations and GDP per capita effect of economic operations,a declining trend by structural effect of economic operations,energy consuming intensity effect of economic operations,energy structural effect of economic operations.Their carbon emission driven by population effect of residents livings and energy consuming intensity effect of residents livings displays a rising trend.Beijing and Tianjin s carbon emission shows a declining trend due to urbanization effect of residents livings,while a rising trend in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia.Carbon emission driven by energy structural effect of residents livings has been falling in Beijing,Sichuan and Inner Mongolia,but rising in Tianjin.