基于ERA5再分析系统海上丝绸之路海况及波高周期联合分布特征

Joint Distribution Characteristics of Sea State and Wave Height Period Along the Maritime Silk Road Based on ERA5 Reanalysis System

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA5再分析系统,基于2012—2022年时间分辨率为1 h的全球气象资料,对海上丝绸之路沿线典型海域进行海况分析。利用我国东南海域、孟加拉湾海域和阿拉伯海域的实测数据验证ERA5资料的有效性和准确性,获得该目标海域风、浪共同限制条件下各季节海况情况。统计得到各季节平均多年海上丝绸之路沿线波浪特征分布规律,并统计分析我国南海、孟加拉湾和阿拉伯海各典型海域的有效波高与谱峰周期联合分布概率。研究结果表明,ERA5数据能较好地反映目标海域的海况特征;工程施工过程中需重点关注夏季波浪波高及全年长周期波浪的影响;我国东南沿海和阿拉伯海整体海况条件较好,孟加拉湾海况较为复杂,有效波高在1.5 m与谱峰周期在10s以上在85%以上,在前期投资规划时需重点关注。

Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ERA5 reanalysis system and global meteorological data at a time resolution of 1h from 2012 to 2022,an analysis of the sea conditions in typical sea areas along the Maritime Silk Road was conducted.The validity and accuracy of the ERA5 data were verified using measured data from the South China Sea,the Bay of Bengal,the Arabian Sea,and the TEMA New Container Terminal Project in Ghana,and sea conditions were given for each season under the common constraints of wind and waves in the target sea area based on the supporting engineering.The average distribution of wave characteristics along the Maritime Silk Road in each season was calculated,and the joint probability distribution of effective wave height and peak period was given for typical sea areas in China's southeastern coast,the Bay of Bengal,the Arabian Sea,and the Gulf of Guinea.The results show that ERA5 data can better reflect the sea conditions of the target sea area.During the construction process,special attention should be paid to the impact of summer wave height and long-period waves throughout the year based on the engineering support.The overall sea conditions in China′s southeastern coast and the Arabian Sea are relatively good,while the Bay of Bengal is more complex with effective wave height and spectral peak period greater than 1.5 m and 10 s,respectively,constituting over 85% of the total.Therefore,during the early investment planning stage,special attention should be paid to the ocean conditions in the Bay of Bengal.