基于HHM-RFRM的海上风电工程吊装作业风险评估研究

Risk Assessment on Lifting Operation of Offshore Wind Power Project Based on HHM-RFRM

为准确、全面识别海上风电工程吊装作业风险,分析施工过程中的风险交互作用,基于等级全息建模思想与风险过滤、评级与管理(HHM-RFRM)理论,建立海上风电吊装施工多维风险情景度量化方法。首先,从人、环、机、管4个方面构建全息评估指标体系;其次,采用RFRM法对风险因素进行量化排序;最后,依据贝叶斯公式构建二维典型风险场景。结果表明:环境因素对吊装作业安全影响最大,潮湿作业环境分别与作业船稳定性差、吊索具出现故障以及操作人员配合不当等3个因素交互时事故风险度高。该方法可为海上风电施工安全风险的精准管控提供理论依据。

In order to accurately and comprehensively identify the lifting operation risk of the offshore wind power project and analyze the risk interaction in the construction process,a quantitative method for the multidimensional risk scenario in the offshore wind power lifting construction was established based on the hierarchical holographic modeling idea and risk filtering,rating and management(HHM-RFRM)theory.Firstly,a holographic assessment index system was constructed from four aspects,namely,man,environment,machine and management.Secondly,the RFRM method was adopted to quantitatively rank the risk factors.Finally,a two-dimensional typical risk scenario was constructed based on the Bayesian formula.The results show that environmental factors have the greatest influence on the safety of lifting operation,and the risk of accidents is high when the humid operation environment interacts with three factors such as poor stability of the operation vessel,failure of the slings and improper cooperation of the operators,respectively.This method provides a theoretical basis for the precise control of safety risks of the offshore wind power construction.