基于PLUS模型的福州市土地利用变化模拟及生态系统服务价值的响应

Simulation of Land Use Change and Response of Ecosystem Service Value of Fuzhou City Based on PLUS Model

在实施强省会和生态省战略背景下,研究福州市土地利用和生态系统服务价值在未来一定时期内的变化,对协调福州市经济发展与生态保护具有重要意义。本研究基于2期(2005年和2020年)土地利用数据,利用斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model,PLUS)和当量因子法等方法,模拟了福州市在历史发展速度下未来土地利用及生态系统服务价值的变化情况。结果表明:2005—2020年福州市建设用地增加了282.93 km^(2),增幅达62.1%,在历史发展速度下,到2035年面积将达987.89 km^(2),与2020年相比将增加249.54 km^(2),耕地面积减少最多,前15年减少了131.6 km^(2),后15年将会继续减少113.21 km^(2);福州市建设用地扩张主要源自对耕地、林地、草地和水域的侵占;前15年福州市生态系统服务价值减少了26.15亿元,在历史发展速度下,后15年将会继续减少21.58亿元;前15年和后15年,福州市每1%的土地利用结构发生变化,分别会导致该区域生态系统服务价值减少大约9.18%和8.86%。在福州市国土空间规划中应注重经济效益和生态效益的权衡,明确划定“三区三线”,在福州滨海快速城镇化地区应做好水域、林地生态保护规划,防止开发过程中侵占生态系统服务价值高的土地。

Under the background of implementing the strategy of strengthening the provincial capital and ecological province,it is of great significance to coordinate the economic development and ecological protection of Fuzhou by studying the changes of land use and ecosystem service value in a certain period of time in the future.Based on the land use data of two periods(2005 and 2020),this study used patch-generating land use simulation model(PLUS)and equivalent factor method to simulate the future changes in land use and ecosystem service value of Fuzhou at the historical development speed.The results showed that the construction land in Fuzhou increased by 282.93 km^(2) from 2005 to 2020,with an increase of 62.1%.At the historical development speed,the area will reach 987.89 km^(2) by 2035,which will increase by 249.54 km^(2) compared with 2020.The cultivated land decreased the most,which decreased by 131.6 km^(2) in the first 15 years and will continue to decrease by 113.21 km^(2) in the next 15 years.The expansion of construction land in Fuzhou mainly comes from the occupation of cultivated land,forest land,grassland and water bodies.The value of ecosystem services in Fuzhou decreased by 2.615 billion yuan in the first 15 years,and will continue to decrease by 2.158 billion yuan in the next 15 years at a historical development speed.In the first 15 years and the last 15 years,every 1%change in land use structure in Fuzhou City would lead to a decrease of about 9.18%and 8.86%in the value of ecosystem services in the region.In the territorial spatial planning of Fuzhou City,attention should be paid to the balance between economic and ecological benefits,and the“three zones and three lines”should be clearly defined.In the rapidly urbanizing coatstal area of Fuzhou,ecological protection planning for water bodies and forest land should be rationallly designed to prevent encroaching on land with high ecosystem service value during the development process.