基于多灾种耦合的油气管道系统脆弱性定量评估研究

Quantitative assessment of oil and gas pipeline system vulnerability based on multi-disaster coupling

为预防油气管道事故,建立了一种多灾种耦合的油气管道系统脆弱性定量评价方法。首先,基于脆弱性概念明确其组成和演化过程,通过分析油气管道系统扰动特征,构建自然灾害和管道本体灾害下敏感性、暴露性以及韧性参数函数;其次,分析单灾种影响下的脆弱性,建立单灾种管道系统脆弱性的综合计算公式;再次,引入耦合系数模型和综合调和指数,建立多灾种耦合的脆弱性模型;最后,基于油气管道风险分级的基本原理,建立油气管道脆弱性分级标准,明确脆弱性状态和处置方式。实例表明,多灾种耦合下的油气管道系统脆弱性反映了各灾种的整体功效和协同效应,使计算结果更加准确和客观,是油气管道系统脆弱性定量评估研究的一次有益探索。

In order to prevent oil and gas pipeline accidents,a multi-disaster coupling quantitative evaluation method of oil and gas pipeline system vulnerability was established.Firstly,the composition and evolution process of vulnerability are defined based on the concept of vulnerability.Secondly,by analyzing the disturbance characteristics of oil and gas pipeline system,the sensitivity,exposure and toughness parameter functions under natural disasters and pipeline body disasters are constructed.Then,the vulnerability under the influence of single disaster is analyzed,and the comprehensive calculation formula of vulnerability of single disaster pipeline system is established.Then,the coupling coefficient model and comprehensive harmonic index are introduced to establish the vulnerability model of multi-disaster coupling.Finally,based on the basic principle of oil and gas pipeline risk classification,the classification standard of oil and gas pipeline vulnerability is established,and the vulnerability state and disposal method are clarified.The example shows that the vulnerability of oil and gas pipeline system under multi-disaster coupling reflects the overall efficacy and synergistic effect of each disaster species,so that the calculation results are more accurate and objective,and it is a beneficial exploration for the quantitative assessment of oil and gas pipeline system vulnerability.