绿色信贷、技术进步对黄河流域碳排放影响的空间效应

Spatial Effects of Green Credit and Technological Progress on Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin

绿色信贷和技术进步在抑制碳排放方面具有重要作用,为了给黄河流域九省(区)尽快降低碳排放量及高质量发展提供参考,依据2008—2020年黄河流域九省(区)面板数据,基于各省(区)间的地理距离矩阵、经济距离矩阵计算碳排放量全局莫兰指数、构建空间杜宾计量模型,分析了绿色信贷、技术进步影响黄河流域九省(区)碳排放量的空间效应和协同效应。结果表明:1)黄河流域九省(区)的碳排放量存在空间相关性,主要呈现“低-低”集聚和“高-高”集聚,绿色信贷和能源使用技术进步对碳排放量影响的空间效应显著;2)绿色信贷对碳排放量的影响具有明显的抑制作用和空间溢出效应,广义技术进步对黄河流域九省(区)碳排放量影响不大,能源使用技术进步对本省(区)和相邻省(区)碳排放量均具有长效抑制作用;3)能源使用技术进步与绿色信贷在促进黄河流域九省(区)降碳减排方面具有协同效应。

Green credit and technological progress play an important role in curbing carbon emissions.In order to provide a reference for the nine provinces(autonomous regions)in the Yellow River Basin to reduce carbon emissions as soon as possible and develop with high quality,the panel data of the nine provinces(autonomous regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2020 were presented.Based on the geo-graphical distance matrix and economic distance matrix between provinces(regions),the global Molan index of carbon emissions was calcu-lated,and a spatial Dubin econometric model was constructed to analyze the spatial and synergistic effects of green credit and technological progress on carbon emissions in nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin.The results show that:a)There is a spatial correlation between carbon emissions in the nine provinces(regions)of the Yellow River Basin,mainly showing“low-low”agglomeration and“high-high”agglomeration.Green credit and energy use technology progress have significant spatial effects on carbon emissions;b)Green credit has a significant inhibitory effect and spatial spillover effect on carbon emissions.The broad sense of technological progress has little effect on carbon emissions in the nine provinces(autonomous regions)of the Yellow River Basin,and the progress of energy use technology has a long-term inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the province(autonomous region)and neighboring provinces(autonomous regions);c)Technological progress in energy use and green credit have a synergistic effect on promoting carbon reduction in the nine provinces(au-tonomous regions)of the Yellow River Basin.