内镜干预时机对肝硬化食管胃静脉曲张出血患者近期预后的影响及死亡相关因素分析

Impact of timing of endoscopic intervention on the short-term prognosis and analysis of risk factors for mortalityin patients with liver cirrhosis complicated by esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding

目的 探讨内镜干预时机对食管胃静脉曲张出血(EGVB)患者近期预后的影响,分析EGVB患者术后6周死亡的独立相关因素并构建预测模型。方法 连续纳入从2021年6月至2023年12月因EGVB在武汉大学人民医院行急诊内镜干预的患者,根据内镜干预时间分为紧急内镜组(会诊后6 h内,n=94)和早期内镜组(会诊后6~24 h,n=76)。所有入组患者术后接受6周随访。以1∶1进行倾向评分匹配(PSM),比较两组患者匹配前后基线特征,匹配后手术相关情况及短期预后。应用二元logistic回归分析EGVB患者术后6周死亡的相关因素,并构建预测模型列线图,通过ROC曲线、校准曲线和决策曲线评估预测模型预测效能。结果 匹配前,两组终末期肝病模型(MELD)评分、总胆红素水平、收缩压<90 mmHg比例、合并糖尿病比例和首次出血比例差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。匹配后,紧急内镜组(n=53)和早期内镜组(n=53)基线指标、手术相关指标、术后并发症、术后6周死亡率等差异均无统计学意义;紧急内镜组血液制品消耗量大于早期内镜组(P=0.046)。多因素分析结果显示,首次出血、查尔森合并症指数(CCI)较高、活动性出血和手术持续时间较长是EGVB患者6周死亡的独立相关因素(P<0.05),内镜干预时机非6周死亡相关因素。预测模型ROC曲线下面积为0.790,准确性和临床实用性均较高。结论 内镜干预时机与EGVB患者术后6周死亡无明显相关性;基于首次出血、CCI评分、活动性出血和手术持续时间构建的模型对EGVB患者6周死亡有较高预测价值。

Objective To investigate the effect of different timing of endoscopic intervention on the short-term prognosis of patients with cirrhosis combined with esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding(EGVB),as well as to analyze the independent related factors affecting 6-week mortality of patients with EGVB and to construct a prediction model.Methods The patients with EGVB admitted to Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University for emergency endoscopic intervention from June 2021 to December 2023 were consecutively included.According to the timing of endoscopic intervention,they were categorized into the urgent endoscopy group(within 6 hours after the consultation,n=94)and the early endoscopy group(6-24 hours after the consultation,n=76).All the enrolled patients underwent a 6-week postoperative follow-up.The propensity score matching(PSM)was used as 1∶1,and baseline characteristics before and after PSM,operation related information,short-term prognosis,etc.after PSM between the two groups were compared.The binary logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing the 6-week mortality of patients with EGVB.A nomogram model based on the independent related factors were constructed,and ROC,calibration,and decision curves were used to verify the prognostic value of the model.Results There were significant differences in the model of end-stage liver disease(MELD)score,total bilirubin level,propotions of patients with systolic blood pressure<90 mmHg,diabetes mellitus or initial bleeding event between the two groups(P<0.05).After PSM,a total of 106 patients met the criteria.There was no significant difference in baseline date,operation related information,complications after operation,and 6-week mortality rate after operation between the two groups with 53 patients in each group after PSM.Blood product consumption was significantly higher in the urgent endoscopy group than that in the early endoscopy group (P=0.046). The binary logistic regression analysis results showed that initialbleeding, higher Charson comorbidity index (CCI) score, active bleeding and longer duration of surgery were independent relatedfactors for 6-week mortality after operation in patients with EGVB (P<0.05), whereas timing of endoscopic intervention was nota related factor for 6-week mortality. A nomogram model was constructed and AUC of the model was 0.790, with higher accuracyand utility. Conclusions The association of endoscopic intervention timing with 6-week mortality after operation in patients withEGVB is not significant obvious;the prognostic value of the model basing on initial bleeding, CCI score, active bleeding and surgeryduration is higher for 6-week mortality after operation in patients with EGVB.