规划何以提升应急管理适应性

How the Five-Year Plans Improve Adaptation of Emergency Management

应急规划可作为提升应急管理长周期适应性的主要手段。基于应急管理适应性这一理论范畴,规划提升应急管理长周期适应性有三种作用机制:一是力量统合机制,通过重点任务的设置,实现应急力量自上而下的整合,提升极端突发事件应对的适应性;二是融合发展机制,通过推进自然灾害和事故灾难的融合发展,提升复合灾害应对的适应性;三是约束引导机制,通过安全生产和防灾减灾目标的分解,防范遏制重特大安全生产事故的发生,强化防灾减灾能力,提升应对事故灾难和自然灾害的适应性。基于28份涵盖国家和省级“十四五”应急体系规划的实证分析,验证了上述三种作用机制的存在及其具体表现。以计划性提升适应性,应急规划还需要更加贴合地方风险的现实特点,加强综合应急支撑能力建设,重视安全生产和防灾减灾的均衡发展。

Five-year emergency management plans can be the main tool for improving the long-term adaptability of emergency management. Based on the theory of emergency management adaptation, there are three mechanisms to improve the adaptation of emergency management through emergency management plans. The first is the force unification mechanism, which achieves the top-down integration of emergency response forces through the establishment of key tasks and enhances the adaptation of response to extreme emergencies. The second is the integration development mechanism, which promotes the integration development of natural disasters and accidents and enhances the adaptation of response to compound disasters. The third is the guiding and constraining index mechanism, which enhances the adaptation of response to accidents and natural disasters by preventing the occurrence of major work safety accidents and improving the prevention capability of natural disasters through the decomposition of work safety and natural disaster targets. An empirical analysis of 28 national and provincial ″14th Five-Year Emergency Management Plans″ verified the existence of the above three mechanisms. In order to improve the adaptation of emergency management through planning, emergency management plans must better reflect the realities of local risks, strengthen the construction of comprehensive emergency support capacity, and emphasize the balanced development of work safety and natural disaster prevention and mitigation.