长三角区域碳排放量预测及减排路径研究

Study on Carbon Emission Forecast and Emission Reduction Strategies in Yangtze River Delta Region

长三角区域是中国经济发达地区,消耗能源量及衍生碳排放量居全国区域前列。双碳目标约束使长三角区域碳排放总量的精准预测及有效控制迫在眉睫。研究基于文献数据及实践调研,采用灰色预测模型和三次指数平滑预测模型,构建综合性组合预测模型,使用2015—2021年的区域能源消费统计数据,对长三角区域2023—2026年的碳排放量进行预测分析。模型实际运行表明,组合模型能够克服单一模型的缺点,相对误差为0.33%,显示出良好的拟合效果。依据预测结果,进行数实融合分析,提出工业生产、居民生活和协同治理3个不同视角维度的针对性控排、减排策略建议。组合预测模型对推进长三角区域碳排放量的精准测量具有积极作用,对有效运行碳减排技术具有奠基作用。

The Yangtze River Delta region is an economically developed area in China,and its energy consumption and derived carbon emissions are among the highest in the country.The dual-carbon goal constraint makes it urgent to accurately predict and effectively control the total carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region.Based on literature data and practical research,this study adopts the grey prediction model and the triple exponential smoothing prediction model to construct a comprehensive combined prediction model.Using regional energy consumption statistics from 2015 to 2021,the study predicts and analyzes the carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta region from 2023 to 2026.The actual operation of the model shows that the combined model can overcome the shortcomings of a single model,with arelative error of 0.33%,demonstrating a good fitting effect.Based on the prediction results,a data-realfusion analysis is performed,and targeted emission control and reduction strategies are proposed from three different perspectives:industrial production,residents'lives,and collaborative governance.The combined forecasting model plays a positive role in promoting accurate measurement of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region and lays a foundation for the effective operation of carbon emission reduction technologies.