关于中国碳中和与能源转型实现路径的思考

A pathway to China’s energy transition in a carbon neutrality vision

应对气候变化是当前人类命运共同体面临的重大挑战。2030年碳达峰、2060年碳中和的“双碳目标”是中国作为负责任大国对全世界的庄严承诺,也是中国经济社会系统性变革、转型发展的重要战略目标。能源在实现碳中和目标中承担重要使命。针对中国化石能源占比高、能源需求刚性增长快的特殊条件,研究提出“两个轮子驱动,两大领域发力,一个核心抓手”,未来化石能源占比与终端用能电气化占比2个关键指标的中国能源转型路径。应该充分发挥政府引导和市场主导在能源转型和中国实现碳中和方面的作用,大力发展碳减排和碳消纳核心技术。必须处理好经济发展与能源安全和碳中和的关系,国家层面减排目标和各省、市、企业之间减排目标的关系,传统化石能源公司和新能源公司的关系,碳减排短期行动与长期目标的关系,中国与全球协同推进的关系。

Responding to climate change represents a tremendous challenge to the community with a shared future for mankind.China has committed itself to achieving carbon peaking goal by 2030 and carbon neutrality goal by 2060.The dual carbon goals are not only China’s solemn commitments to the world as a responsible power but also key strategic objectives of the systematic socio-economic reforms,transition,and development of the country.Energy plays a crucial role in reaching carbon neutrality.Given China’s particular situation featuring a high proportion of fossil energy and rapidly increasing rigid demand of energy,this study proposes a pathway for China’s energy transition.In this aspect energy transition is guided initially by government policies and driven by market forces in the long term while focusing on both carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration,capture,utilization and storage.Carbon pricing,through carbon taxes and emissions trading,lies at the core of the pathway,with the future proportion of fossil energy in the primary energy mix and the level of end-use electrification serving as critical indicators.Specifically,it is recommended to fully leverage government guidance and market dominance to facilitate energy transition and reach carbon neutrality in China,and there is a vital need to vigorously develop core technologies for both carbon emission reduction and carbon sequestration,capture,utilization and storage.Furthermore,it is necessary to effectively manage relationships of economic development with carbon neutrality and energy security,between national emission reduction targets and those of all provinces,cities,and enterprises,between traditional fossil energy companies and emerging new energy enterprises,between short-term actions and long-term goals regarding carbon emission reduction,and the coordinated progress on carbon emission reduction for China and the other countries across the world.