电子商务发展能否促进地区人口增长?——基于长三角人口普查与B2B电商企业数据的相关性研究

Can E-commerce Promote Regional Population Growth?:Correlation Study Based on the Yangtze River Delta Census and B2B E-commerce Data

本文基于第六、七次人口普查数据与B2B电商企业数据,研究长三角区县(市)尺度的人口变化特征和电商发展水平,并对电商企业数量与人口变化进行相关性分析,探究电子商务发展与地区人口增长的关系。研究发现电商发展能够影响地区人口流动趋势,有效促进地区人口增长,但作用效果存在明显的区域差异。电商发展的人口拉动效果最为明显的空间单元,通常为具有一定经济发展基础但尚不发达的地区,在江浙两省是县(市),而在安徽省是市辖区。

Based on the data of the sixth and seventh China Population Census and B2B e-commerce enterprises,this paper studies the population change characteristics and e-commerce development level at the county(city)scale in the Yangtze River Delta,and conducts a correlation analysis between the number of e-commerce enterprises and the population change,to explore the relationship between e-commerce development and regional population growth.It finds that the development of e-commerce can affect the evolution trend of population migration and effectively promote the growth of regional population,but the effect has obvious regional differences.It finds that the development of e-commerce can affect the evolution trend of population migration and effectively promote the growth of regional population,but the effect has obvious regional differences.The underdeveloped with a certain economic development foundation area is the most obvious population growth of e-commerce development.For example,the unit is a county(city)in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces,but a municipal district in Anhui province.