2009-2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区胆囊癌发病趋势及年龄变化分析

Analysis on the trends of gallbladder cancer incidence and age change in cancer registration regions of Jiangsu Province,2009 to 2019

目的分析2009—2019年江苏省肿瘤登记地区胆囊癌发病趋势及年龄变化情况,为胆囊癌防控提供理论依据。方法选取2009—2019年16个具有连续完整数据的登记处发病资料,计算发病率、中国标准人口发病率(中标率)、平均发病年龄、中标平均发病年龄、中标年龄别发病构成比等指标。利用Joinpoint软件分析发病趋势,并计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。构建出生队列模型,并分析变化趋势。结果江苏省肿瘤登记地区胆囊癌发病率呈上升趋势,由2009年3.65/10万上升至2019年5.43/10万,AAPC为4.16%(P<0.001)。调整年龄结构后,AAPC为1.26%(P<0.05)。江苏省胆囊癌各年龄组发病率均随年龄增加而上升,80+年龄组达到最高。出生队列结果显示,60岁以下人群胆囊癌发病率较低,60岁及以上人群胆囊癌发病率随出生年份增加而增加。2009—2019年江苏省胆囊癌平均发病年龄年均增加0.16岁,调整人口结构后,仅女性和农村地区仍呈快速升高趋势。2019年全省肿瘤登记地区胆囊癌60岁及以上人群标化年龄发病构成比均高于2009年。2009—2019年全省60岁及以上发病构成比呈上升趋势,年均增加0.83%,调整年龄结构后,年均增加0.48%。结论2009—2019年江苏省胆囊癌发病率呈上升趋势,平均发病年龄出现后移趋势。

Objective To analyze the incidence trend and age change of gallbladder cancer in cancer registration regions of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019 and provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of gallbladder cancer.Methods The incidence data of 16 registries with continuous and complete data from 2009 to 2019 were selected to calculate the incidence rate,the incidence rate of the Chinese standard population,the average age of onset,the standardized average age of onset,and the age-specific incidence proportion.Joinpoint software was used to analyze incidence trends and calculate the average annual percentage change(AAPC).Age-period-cohort model were used to analyze the changes of gallbladder cancer incidence.Results The incidence rate of gallbladder cancer in the cancer registration areas of Jiangsu Province showed an increasing trend,from 3.65/100000 in 2009 to 5.43/100000 in 2019 and the AAPC was 4.16%(P<0.001).The age-adjusted AAPC was 1.26%(P<0.05).The incidence of gallbladder cancer increased with age in all age groups and reached the highest in the 80+age group.The results of the age-period-cohort showed that the incidence of gallbladder cancer was low in people under 60 years old,and increased with the year of birth in people aged 60 years and older.The average age of onset of gallbladder cancer in Jiangsu Province increased by 0.16 years per year from 2009 to 2019.After adjusting the population structure,only women and rural areas still showed a rapid increase.In 2019,the age-standardized proportion of gallbladder cancer incidence among people aged 60 years and above in the whole province was higher than that in 2009.The constituent ratio of cases aged 60 years and above showed an increasing trend in Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2019 with an average annual increase of 0.83%and after adjusting the age structure,the average annual increase was 0.48%.Conclusions The incidence of gallbladder cancer in Jiangsu Province increased from 2009 to 2019 and the average age of onset showed an increasing trend.