中国与RCEP成员国农产品贸易合作态势分析——基于社会网络视角的再检验

Analysis of agricultural products trade cooperation trends between China and RCEP member countries——Re-examination based on the perspective of social networks

基于2000-2020年UN Comtrade数据库农产品贸易数据,运用显示性比较优势、贸易互补性指数及网络结构相关指标分析了中国与RCEP成员国农产品贸易合作态势。结果表明:第一,中国与RCEP成员国农产品贸易显示性比较优势存在较大差异,且中国出口与RCEP成员国进口的农产品贸易结构相似度较高,但在中国进口与RCEP成员国出口上表现出的贸易互补性偏弱;第二,中国与RCEP成员国农产品贸易网络密度总体呈现愈加紧密的趋势,并在农产品贸易网络中占据网络中心位置,扮演“桥梁”“中间行动者”等角色;第三,中国与RCEP成员国农产品贸易竞合关系可具体量化为竞争性强度、互补性强度,中国可根据竞合关系量化结果得出的不同策略位势采取差异化合作模式,且经社会网络视角再检验后结果依然稳健。为进一步推进贸易强国建设步伐,中国应在RCEP的基础上,着力平衡成员国间的竞合关系,继续完善农产品贸易合作网络,不断强化区域间的策略对接,有力促进农产品贸易合作顺利开展。

Based on the agricultural products trade data of UN Comtrade database from 2000 to 2020,this paper analyzes the trend of agricultural products trade cooperation between China and RCEP member countries by using the indicators of revealed comparative advantage,trade complementarity index and network structure.The results show that:Firstly there is a significant difference in the revealed comparative advantage of agricultural products trade between China and RCEP member countries,and the similarity in the trade structure of agricultural products between China’s exports and RCEP member countries’imports is relatively high,but the trade complementarity between China’s imports and RCEP member countries’exports is weak;Secondly The overall density of China’s agricultural trade network with RCEP member countries is showing an increasingly close trend,and it occupies a central position in the agricultural products trade network,playing the role of“bridge”and“intermediate actor”;Thirdly The competitive and cooperative relationship between China and RCEP member countries in agricultural products trade can be specifically quantified as the intensity of competitiveness and complementarity.China can adopt differentiated cooperation models based on the different strategic positions obtained from the quantitative results of the competitive and cooperative relationship,and the results are still stable after retesting from the perspective of social network.In order to further promote the construction of a major trading country,China should strive to balance the competitive and cooperative relationship among member countries on the basis of RCEP,continue to improve the agricultural products trade cooperation network,and constantly strengthen the regional strategic cooperation to effectively promote the smooth development of agricultural products trade cooperation.