地方债管理体制改革对私人投资的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Local Debt Management System Reform on Private Investment

为防范化解地方政府债务风险,新《预算法》赋予地方政府自行发债的权力。“开前门、堵后门”的地方债管理体制改革能否约束地方政府的举债行为,减少资源配置扭曲,从而促进私人投资和经济增长呢?本文利用2012—2018年A股上市公司数据和城市面板数据,探析地方债管理体制改革对私人投资水平的影响和机制。研究发现,地方债管理体制改革对地级市私人投资水平有显著的促进作用。机制研究表明,地方债管理体制改革能够通过抑制地方债规模和提升债务支出效率促进私人投资。进一步研究表明,改革对不同类型债务效果不一,对融资平台有息债务的影响最为明显。应进一步深化地方债管理,构建有效低息的债务体系,全方位推进地方债标准化和透明化,推动融资平台转型以及强化预算约束等。

To prevent and resolve the risk of local government debt,the new Budget Law grants local governments the authority to issue bonds on their own.Can the reform of local debt management system,which involves"opening the front door and blocking the back door",constrain the borrowing behavior of local governments,reduce resource allocation distortions,and promote private investment and economic growth?This article uses data from A-share listed companies and urban panel data from 2012 to 2018 to explore the impact and mechanism of local debt management system reform on private investment levels.Research has found that the reform of the local debt management system has a significant promoting effect on the level of private investment in prefecture level cities.Mechanism research shows that the reform of the local debt management system can promote private investment by suppressing the scale of local debt and improving the efficiency of local debt expenditure.Further research indicates that reforms have varying effects on different types of debt,with the most significant impact on interest bearing debt of financing platforms.We should further deepen the management of local government debt,build an effective and low interest debt system,comprehensively promote the standardization and transparency of local debt,promote the transformation of financing platforms,and continuously address constraints on local government budgets.