典型气候事件对北极渔业资源的影响

The impact of typical climatic events on Arctic fisheries resources

随着北极海冰融化加剧,越来越多的渔船涌入北极海域,促使北极渔业资源得到了更好的开发。在这种情况下,研究气候事件对北极海域的影响变得至关重要。本文选取了北大西洋多年代际涛动(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO)、北极涛动(Arctic Oscillation,AO)和北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)这三种典型气候事件,通过超前滞后相关、回归分析等统计方法,探究它们与北极渔区(以27渔区为代表)渔业总捕捞量以及4种主要经济鱼种(大西洋鳕、大西洋鲱、格陵兰大比目鱼和大西洋鲑)捕捞量之间的联系。研究结果表明:1950-2020年,27渔区的海洋渔业总捕捞量总体呈现出两次上升与两次下降过程;在AMO及AO两种气候事件中,AMO对27渔区的捕捞量影响最为显著,同时海冰范围变化对捕捞资源同期影响很强;其中的1980-2020年,4种主要经济鱼种捕捞量与AO相关性均较低,而与AMO呈现明显正或负相关性;4种主要经济鱼种捕捞量与大西洋海表温度存在显著相关性,尤其是类AMO型的海温变化对这4种鱼种捕捞量波动可能存在显著影响。本研究不仅揭示了气候变化对北极渔业资源的显著影响,还根据研究结果提出相应的对策建议,为进一步研究提供了方向和参考,以期实现北极渔业资源可持续发展。

The intensification of Arctic sea ice melting has increased access to the Arctic sea area for fishing vessels,prompting better development of Arctic fishery resources.In this context,studying the impact of climate events on the Arctic sea region becomes crucial.This paper selects three typical climate events:the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),the Arctic Oscillation(AO),and the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO).Using statistical methods such as lead-lag correlation and regression analysis,it explores their relationships with fishing yields in 27 fishing regions and the catches of four major economic fish species(Atlantic cod,Atlantic herring,Greenland halibut,and Atlantic salmon).The research findings are as follows:during the period of 1950-2020,①the overall marine fishing yields in the 27 fishing regions experienced two periods of increase and two periods of decline;②among the AMO and AO climate events,the AMO event had the most significant impact on fishing yields in the 27 fishing regions,and at the same time,changes in sea ice extent had a strong concurrent impact on fishery resources.③During the period from 1980 to 2020,the fishing yields of the four major economic fish species showed a relatively low correlation with AO but a clear positive or negative correlation with AMO.④The fishing yields of the four fish species were significantly correlated with the Atlantic sea surface temperature,particularly the AMO-like sea temperature changes significantly influenced these four fish species.This study not only reveals the significant impact of climate change on Arctic fishery resources but also proposes corresponding countermeasures and suggestions based on the research results,providing directions and references for further studies,with the aim of achieving sustainable development of Arctic fishery resources.