南京市托育服务供需耦合协调研究

A Study on Coupling Coordination Between the Supply and Demandof Childcare Services in Nanjing

在出生率持续走低的背景下,建立健全托育服务体系对于提升生育意愿、优化人口结构具有重要意义。本文基于南京市101个街道/镇和396家托育机构相关数据,构建南京市托育服务供给与需求评价指标体系,采用熵值法、耦合协调模型等分析南京市托育服务供给、需求及耦合协调度的空间分异特征。结果表明:(1)南京市各街道托育服务供给水平总体较低,空间分异显著;(2)中心城区的托育服务需求普遍较高,主城区的托育服务需求差异较大,郊区的托育服务需求普遍较低;(3)南京市托育服务供给与需求耦合整体处于中低耦合协调水平。最后基于耦合协调类型,提出对策建议,为推动托育服务供需协调发展提供参考。

Against the background of a declining birth rate,the establishment of a sound childcare service system is of great significance for increasing the willingness to have children and optimizing population structure.Based on the relevant data from 101 streets and 396 childcare institutions in Nanjing,this paper has constructed an index system for evaluating the supply and demand of childcare services in Nanjing.Methods such as entropy value method and coupling coordination model are employed to analyze the spatial differentiation characteristics of the supply,demand,and coupling coordination of childcare services in Nanjing.The results are as follows:(1)The overall supply level of childcare services in various streets of Nanjing is relatively low,with significant spatial differentiation;(2)The demand for childcare services in the central urban areas is generally high and there are significant differences in the demand of the main urban areas,but the demand in the suburbs is generally low;(3)The overall coupling coordination between the supply and demand of childcare services in Nanjing is at a medium-low level.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions based on the coupling coordination types are proposed to provide a theoretical basis for promoting the coordinated development of the supply and demand of childcare services.