带有疫苗接种的新型冠状病毒传播动力学分析

Transmission Dynamics of Corona Virus with Vaccination

本文通过数学建模研究疫苗接种和隔离措施对新型冠状病毒传播的影响机制,通过对建立的模型进行定性分析,利用下一代矩阵法确定了基本再生数,并给出平衡点的存在性及其稳定性。从数值模拟可以得出,提高疫苗有效率可以更快地控制新型冠状病毒的传播,提高疫苗接种率可以推迟感染高峰时间和减少发病人数。除此之外,应继续执行一些非药物干预措施,如戴口罩、隔离等,可以大大减少最终感染规模和新型冠状病毒传播的时间,最终有效控制。

The influence mechanism of vaccination and quarantine measures on the spread of corona virus was studied through mathematical modeling.Through qualitative analysis of the established model,the basic reproductive number was determined by using the next generation matrix method,and the existence and stability of the equilibria were given.Numerical simulations show that improving vaccine effectiveness can control the spread of corona virus more quickly,and increasing vaccination rates can delay the peak time of infection and reduce the number of cases.In addition,we should continue to implement some non-drug interventions,such as wearing masks and isolation,which can greatly reduce the final scale of infection and the transmission time of corona virus,and ultimately effectively control the spread of corona virus.