疫苗接种及多种措施对新型冠状病毒传播及死亡的影响

Impact of Vaccination and Multiple Measures on Corona Virus Infection and Death

为了深入了解新型冠状病毒的传播机制,结合疫苗接种的特点,考虑了人口流动、核酸检测和个人防护多种防控措施,将感染者分为无症状感染者、轻症感染者和重症感染者,建立了新型冠状病毒的SEIR传播动力学模型。利用下一代矩阵法计算了基本再生数,利用Lyapunov函数分析了平衡点的稳定性。通过数值模拟和敏感性分析发现:增加疫苗接种率对减少死亡人数有帮助;控制流动人口和进行核酸检测对减少死亡人数和控制疫情的传播都有帮助。疫苗接种率较低时虽然不会减少无症状感染者的数量,但也能减少总感染人数与死亡人数。

In order to gain insights into the mechanism of corona virus transmission,based on the characteristics of vaccination,the SEIR transmission dynamics model of corona virus was established by taking into account various prevention and control measures such as population flow,nucleic acid detection and personal protection.The infected persons were classified into asymptomatic,mild and severe infected persons.The next generation matrix method was used to calculate the basic regeneration number and Lyapunov function was used to analyze the stability of the equilibrium point.Through numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis,it is found that increasing the vaccination rate is helpful to reduce the number of deaths;Control of floating populations and nucleic acid testing are both helpful in reducing the number of deaths and controlling the spread of the epidemic.Low vaccination rates will not reduce the number of asymptomatic infections,but they can reduce the total number of infections and deaths.