中国金融高质量发展与实体经济的耦合机制研究

Research on the Coupling Mechanism of China’s High-quality Financial Developmentand the Real Economy

随着中国经济高速发展,金融业和实体经济的协调发展成为推动中国经济高质量发展的基础。基于2013—2021年中国30个省级区域的数据,从理论层面对中国金融高质量发展与实体经济的协调发展进行分析,构建指标体系,利用耦合协调模型和灰色关联度模型对各省份金融高质量发展与实体经济的耦合协调度进行测度,并讨论其影响因素。研究表明:第一,中国金融高质量发展水平进步明显,且始终处于稳步推进的状态中。根据八大经济综合区域的划分,各区域金融高质量发展水平呈现由沿海及长江地区向内陆地区递减的趋势。第二,金融高质量发展与实体经济之间的耦合协调度呈上升趋势,同时二者的耦合协调程度也从先前的中度协调发展到高度协调。整体呈现“东部沿海—南部沿海—北部沿海—长江中游—大西南—黄河中游—东北—大西北”依次递减排列的区域特征。第三,就全国及八大经济综合区域而言,金融结构、金融稳健性和规模以上工业企业经济效益对耦合协调度的影响程度较高,金融效率、数字普惠金融指数和固定资产投资对耦合协调度的影响程度较低。因此,研究结果对促进各省份金融高质量发展和实体经济的协调发展具有一定的意义。

With the rapid development of China’s economy,the financial industry and the real economy have become the two most important fields in China’s economic system,and the coordinated development of them has become the key foundation for promoting the high-quality development of China’s economy.The coordinated development of China’s financial high-quality development and the real economy is analyzed theoretically.Based on the panel data of 30 provincial regions in China from 2013 to 2021,the indicator system,the coupled coordination model and the grey correlation model are constructed to measure,analyze,and discuss the influencing factors of the coupled coordination degree of the financial high-quality development of each province and its real economy.It shows that:the level of China’s financial high-quality development has progressed significantly and has always been in a state of steady progress.According to the division of the eight economic regions,the level of high-quality financial development in each region shows a decreasing trend from the coastal and Yangtze River regions to the inland regions.The coupling and coordination degree of high-quality financial development and the real economy has shown a significant upward trend,and at the same time,the degree has also evolved from the previous moderate coordination to high coordination.The overall decreasing trend is“east coast→south coast→north coast→middle reaches of Yangtze River→southwest→middle reaches of Yellow River→northeast→northwest”.In both the national and the regional perspectives,the financial structure,financial soundness and the economic efficiency of industrial enterprises above the large-scale enterprises have a high degree of influence on the coupling coordination degree,while the financial efficiency,the digital financial inclusion index and the investment in fixed assets have a low impact on the coupling coordination degree.Therefore,the findings of this paper have certain theoretical and practical significance for promoting the coordinated development of high-quality financial development and real economy in provinces.