基于多源信息融合的隧道安全风险评估

Tunnel Safety Risk Assessment Based on Multi-source Information Fusion

[目的]为了有效感知和评估隧道施工过程中的安全风险,提出一种基于多源信息融合的隧道安全风险评估方法。[方法]介绍了隧道安全风险评估方法,选取地质因素、设计因素、环境因素、施工管理因素四个分类中的20个隧道安全风险影响因素,建立了隧道安全风险评估指标体系并划分了安全等级;基于模糊物元法对安全风险评价指标的基本概率分配进行构造和计算;基于Dempster-Shafer证据理论对多源数据进行融合计算,并根据最大隶属度原则确定安全等级;以重庆轨道交通10号线二期工程南坪站—后堡站区间为例,验证所提方法在实际工程中的有效性。[结果及结论]隧道施工安全风险等级从低至高可分为五级:南坪站—后堡站区间隧道工程的地质风险等级为Ⅱ级;设计风险等级为Ⅲ级;环境风险等级为Ⅳ级;施工管理风险等级为Ⅱ级;隧道工程总体风险等级为Ⅱ级。隧道工程总体处于较低风险状态。通过实际项目验证可知,隧道风险评估结果与现场实际风险情况一致。

[Objective]To effectively perceive and assess safety risks during tunnel construction process,a tunnel safety risk assessment method based on multi-source information fusion is proposed.[Method]A tunnel safety risk assessment method is introduced,with a total of 20 tunnel safety risk influencing factors selected from four categories:geology,design,environment,and construction management.Then a tunnel safety risk assessment index system is established,and safety levels are determined.The basic probability assignment of the safety risk assessment index is constructed and calculated based on fuzzy matter-element method.Fusion calculations of the multi-source data are performed based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory,and the safety levels are classified according to the principle of maximum membership degrees.Taking Nanping Sta.-Houba Sta.interval(Nan-Hou Interval)of Chongqing Rail Transit Line 10 Phase II project as example,the effectiveness of the proposed method in practical engineering is verified.[Result&Conclusion]Tunnel construction safety risk levels can be classified from low to high into five levels:the geological risk level of Nan-Hou Interval tunnel project is Level II;the design risk level is Level III;the environmental risk level is Level IV;the construction management risk level is Level II;the overall tunnel engineering risk level is Level II.The overall tunnel project is in a relatively low-risk state.Through verification in actual projects,it is found that the tunnel risk assessment results are consistent with the actual risk situation on-site.