西北地区房地产业关联效益分析及发展策略

Association Effect and Development Strategy of the Real Estate Industry in Northwest China

基于西北地区2007年、2012年及2017年各省份投入产出数据,以投入产出法为理论依据,分别测算出西北地区房地产业后向关联系数、前向关联系数和环向关联系数。结果表明:西北地区房地产业发展受地区特征影响,经济总效应不够明显,对国民经济的推动作用并不大,整体关联效应由传统矿物产业转变为服务业;依赖程度由金融业、租贷和商务服务业为主的第三产业主导;从带动关系看,对金融业、批发和零售业的关联效益最大,而对第一产业的农林牧渔产品较低,体现了房地产业关联范围广但不全面的特点。基于研究结果提出规避房地产业金融风险、转变产业发展模式、完善各项房地产业制度体系、创新产业模式、制定因地制宜的调控政策等对策建议。

Based on the input-output data of various provinces in the northwest region in 2007,2012,2017,and using the input-output method as the theoretical basis,the backward correlation coefficient,forward correlation coefficient,and circular correlation coefficient of the real estate industry in the northwest region are calculated respectively.The results show that the development of the real estate industry in the northwest region is affected by regional characteristics,the overall economic effect is not obvious,and the promotion effect on the national economy is not significant.The overall correlation effect has changed from traditional mineral industry to service industry.The degree of dependence is dominated by the tertiary industry dominated by the financial industry,leasing and commercial services industry.from the perspective of driving relationship,it has the greatest correlation benefits for the financial industry,wholesale and retail industries,while the agricultural,forestry,animal husbandry,and fishery products in the primary industry are relatively low,reflecting the wide but not comprehensive characteristics of the real estate industry.Suggestions are put forward based on the findings,including avoiding financial risks in the real estate industry,transforming the industrial development model,improving various real estate industry institutional systems,innovating industrial models,and formulating regulatory policies tailored to local conditions.