中国主要农产品进口关系韧性及其影响因素研究:基于风险抵抗力与恢复力的双重视角

Resilience of Major Agricultural Import Relationships and Its Driving Factors in China:Based on the Dual Perspective of Risk Resistance and Recovery

双循环发展格局下,中国不仅要依靠国内生产把饭碗牢牢握在自己手里,也要打造可靠的海外供应关系,利用国际市场强化中国农产品供应链韧性。本文基于风险抵抗力与恢复力两个关键性能,探究中国农产品进口关系韧性的演化特征与成因机制。结果表明:中国农产品进口关系韧性表现为进口关系的平均持续时间较短,且生存率随持续时间不断下滑,风险抵抗能力不强;中断后的农产品进口关系的平均恢复速度相对较快,风险恢复能力较强;农产品进口关系韧性在产品、地区间均存在不同程度的差异。在成因机制上,双边经济发展水平、资源禀赋、多元化进口策略及产品初始进口规模对中国农产品进口关系风险抵抗力与恢复力均具有显著的积极作用;贸易成本因素及产品生产要素含量对农产品进口关系风险抵抗力的作用强于其对中断的进口关系恢复力的作用。

Under the pattern of Dual Circulation,China needs to not only rely on domestic production to hold the grain supply in its own hands,but also build a reliable overseas supply relationship to strengthen the resilience of agricultural supply chain.In this study,we explore the evolutionary characteristics and mechanisms of the resilience of agricultural import relationship in China based on the two key properties,including risk resistance and recovery.The results show that the resilience of agricultural import relationship is manifested in the short average duration of import relation,the declining survival rate,and the weak risk resistance.Once relationship broken,the average recovery speed of the agricultural import relationship is relatively fast,indicating that the recovery ability is strong.The resilience of agricultural import relationship is also heterogeneous between different products and regions.In terms of the causative mechanism,economic scale,resource endowment,diversified import strategy and the initial import scale of agricultural products have significant and positive effects on the risk resistance ability and recovery ability of agricultural import relation.Trade cost and factor demand of product(water)have a stronger effect on the risk resistance than on the recovery of the interrupted import relation.